000 AXPZ20 KNHC 131452 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1545 UTC Thu Jul 13 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Fernanda is centered near 11.7N 115.0W at 13/1500 UTC or about 734 nm SSW of the southern tip of Baja California moving W at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is within 120 nm in the NE semicircle and within 240 nm in the SW semicircle. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 04N to 07N between 111W and 115W. Fernanda is forecast to continue westward for the next few days, gradually strengthening to a hurricane tonight. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis extends N of 09N along 91W northward to across Guatemala and the Yucatan peninsula moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Associated convection is described in the next section. A tropical wave axis extends N of 09N along 102W moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Associated convection is described in the next section. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N75W to 10N90W to 10N100W, then resumes from 11N120W to 12N125W to 10N138W. The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 10N138W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 03N to 09N E of 80W, from 07N to 10N between 82W and 86W, from 04N to 10N between 87W and 92W, from 11N to 16N between 92W and 98W, and also from 07N to 10N between 97W and 104W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Generally light and variable winds offshore of Baja California will become mainly gentle to moderate northwesterly by Friday night as the remnant circulation of Eugene continues to dissipate and move away from the area. Swells generated by Eugene will continue to affect the W coast of Baja California and southern California during the next day or so causing dangerous surf and rip current conditions. Seas continue to subside gradually and are expected to maintain a range of 4 to 6 ft within S to SW swell tonight through early next week. Winds are expected to become light and variable again by early next week as broad troughing sets up across the offshore waters. In the Gulf of California, mainly light and variable winds will prevail, except occasionally pulsing to moderate out of the SE in the northern Gulf each morning. Seas will be 2 ft or less, except 3 to 4 ft near the entrance. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, northerly nocturnal winds will pulse to fresh through Saturday morning, then will be weaker each morning through Tuesday. Thereafter, winds will resume a fresh pulse each morning the remainder of the week. Elsewhere, mainly gentle variable winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft will prevail through the next several days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... In the Gulf of Papagayo, moderate to fresh offshore nocturnal winds will pulse through Saturday morning, then will be weaker thereafter. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected S of the monsoon trough axis. Long period cross-equatorial southerly swell and seas 6 to 7 ft has begun to propagate through the waters W of Colombia and Ecuador, with a reinforcing set of swell moving across the area Friday night and reaching the Central America coast by Saturday night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the special features section for information on Tropical Storm Fernanda. Post-tropical cyclone Eugene was analyzed near 25N124.5W as a 1010 mb low center. The center remains void of any deep convection. The remnant circulation will continue to move NW for the next couple of days before dissipation. Associated winds and seas will diminish and subside through Friday. Otherwise, mainly moderate trades will prevail N of the convergence zone through the next several days, except increasing to fresh in the N central waters with a tight pressure gradient present offshore of central California Sunday night through early Tuesday. Seas of 4 to 7 ft outside of any tropical cyclone activity will prevail, except building to 8 to 9 ft in the N central waters when the stronger winds occur. $$ Lewitsky