000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130945 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 638 UTC Thu Jul 13 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Fernanda is centered near 11.7N 114.1W at 13/0900 UTC or about 710 nm SSW of the southern tip of Baja California moving W at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is from 09N to 13N between 112W and 116W. Fernanda is forecast to continue westward for the next few days, gradually strengthening to a hurricane by late Thursday night into early Friday morning. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/ WTPZ21 for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis extends N of 09N along 89W northward to the eastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 11N to 15N between 91W and 94W. A tropical wave axis extends N of 09N along 101W moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is from 10N to 13N between 99W and 102W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to 10N84W to 09N97W to 10N104W then resumes from 10N116W to 12N126W to 11N136W. The ITCZ axis extends from 11N136W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 05N to 09N between 86W and 90W...and from 11N to 15N between 91W and 94W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 07N E of 79W...from 07N to 09N between 82W and 85W...from 05N to 11N between 91W and 98W...from 05N to 08N between 107W and 115W...and from 06N to 08N between 122W and 127W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Generally light and variable winds offshore of Baja California will become mainly gentle to moderate northwesterly by Friday night as the remnant circulation of Eugene continues to dissipate and move away from the area. Swells generated by Eugene will continue to affect the W coast of Baja California and southern California during the next day or two causing dangerous surf and rip current conditions. Seas continue to subside gradually and are expected to maintain a range of 4 to 6 ft within S to SW swell Thursday night through early next week. Winds are expected to become light and variable again by early next week as broad troughing sets up across the offshore waters. In the Gulf of California, mainly light and variable winds will prevail, except occasionally pulsing to moderate out of the SE in the northern Gulf each morning. Seas will be 2 ft or less, except 3 to 4 ft near the entrance. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, northerly nocturnal winds will pulse to fresh through Saturday morning, then will be weaker each morning through Tuesday. Thereafter, winds will resume a fresh pulse each morning the remainder of the week. Elsewhere, mainly gentle variable winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft will prevail through the next several days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... In the Gulf of Papagayo, moderate to fresh offshore nocturnal winds will pulse through Saturday morning, then will be weaker thereafter. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected S of the monsoon trough axis. Long period cross-equatorial southerly swell and seas 6 to 7 ft are forecast west of Colombia and Ecuador beginning on Thursday, with a reinforcing set of swell moving across the area Friday night and reaching the Central America coast by Saturday night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the special features section for information on Tropical Storm Fernanda. Post-tropical cyclone Eugene was analyzed near 25N124W as a 1010 mb low center. The center remains void of any deep convection. The remnant circulation will continue to move NW for the next couple of days before dissipation. Associated winds and seas will diminish and subside through the end of the week. Otherwise, mainly moderate trades will prevail N of the convergence zone through the next several days, except increasing to fresh in the N central waters with a tight pressure gradient present offshore of central California Sunday night through early Tuesday. Seas of 4 to 7 ft outside of any tropical cyclone activity will prevail, except building to 8 to 9 ft in the N central waters when the stronger winds occur. $$ HUFFMAN