000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130240 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0240 UTC Thu Jul 13 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0215 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Fernanda centered near 11.9N 113.1W at 13/0300 UTC or about 686 nm SSW of the southern tip of Baja California moving W at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with guts to 50 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is within 60 nm of center. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 08N to 14N between 111W and 119W. Fernanda is forecast to continue westward for the next few days, gradually strengthening to a hurricane by Friday morning. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis extends N of 09N along 87W across Nicaragua and Honduras into the NW Caribbean Sea moving W at 15 to 20 kt. The majority of the associated convection is across eastern portions of Nicaragua and Honduras as well as in the Caribbean Sea. A tropical wave axis extends N of 09N along 99W/100W moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Associated convection is described in the section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N76W to 09N94W to 09N108W, then resumes from 11N118W to 11N133W. The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 11N133W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong from 05N to 10N between 89W and 100W, from 05N to 09N between 106W and 114W, and from 09N to 12N between 126W and 134W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Generally light and variable winds offshore of Baja California will become mainly northwesterly by Friday night as the remnant circulation of Eugene continues to spin down and move away from the area. Swells generated by Eugene will continue to affect the W coast of Baja California and southern California during the next day or two causing dangerous surf and rip current conditions. Seas of 5 to 7 ft will subside to 4 to 5 ft at the same time. These conditions will then persist through the upcoming weekend with winds become light and variable again by early next week as broad troughing sets up across the offshore waters. In the Gulf of California, mainly light and variable winds will prevail, except occasionally pulsing to moderate out of the SE in the northern Gulf. Seas will be 2 ft or less, except 3 to 4 ft near the entrance. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, northerly nocturnal winds will pulse to fresh through Saturday morning, then will be weaker thereafter. Elsewhere, mainly gentle variable winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft will prevail through the next several days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... In the Gulf of Papagayo, moderate to fresh offshore nocturnal winds will pulse through Saturday morning, then will be weaker thereafter. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected S of the monsoon trough axis. Long period cross-equatorial southerly swell and seas 6 to 7 ft are forecast west of Colombia and Ecuador beginning on Thursday, with a reinforcing set of swell moving across the area through the upcoming weekend and into early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the special features section for information on Tropical Storm Fernanda. Post-tropical cyclone Eugene was analyzed near 24.5N123W as a 1006 mb low center. The center remains void of any deep convection. The remnant circulation will continue to move toward the NW for the next couple of days before dissipation. Associated winds and seas will diminish and subside through the end of the week. Otherwise, mainly moderate trades will prevail N of the convergence zone through the next several days, except occasionally increasing to fresh in the N central waters with a tight pressure gradient present offshore of central California through the next several hours, and then redeveloping again late in the upcoming weekend and into early next week. Seas of 4 to 7 ft outside of any tropical cyclone activity will prevail, except building to 8 to 9 ft in the N central waters when the stronger winds occur. $$ Lewitsky