000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120248 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 220 UTC Wed Jul 12 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Eugene is centered near 22.3N 120.5W at 0300 UTC, or about 445 nm SW of Punta Eugenia, Mexico moving NW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained winds are now 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection is mainly within 60 to 90 nm north of the center. Eugene will continue to weaken, becoming a post-tropical remnant low within 24 hours as it moves NW across increasingly cooler waters. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. Newly formed Tropical Depression Six-E is centered near 12.2N 109.9W at 0300 UTC, or about 645 nm SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico moving W at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. The last visible and more recent infrared satellite imagery shows the deep convection associated with the tropical depression becoming better organized with banding features in the northern semicircle. The upper level outflow is well established and T.D. Six-E is in a favorable environment for further intensification. The system is likely to become a tropical storm on Wed and possibly a hurricane by Fri. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The southern extent of a tropical wave along 93W is N of 12N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from low pressure in the SW Caribbean near 10N79W across Costa Rica to 10N86W to 08N95W to 11N105W. The ITCZ axis extends from 12N120W to 11N130W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 120-180 nm either side of the ITCZ and monsoon trough between 127W and 140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 240 nm S of the axis between 85W and 104W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High winds and large seas associated with Tropical Storm Eugene will remain west of the Baja California offshore zones. Swell generated by the tropical cyclone will keep seas 8-10 ft in the offshore waters zones through mid-day Wed even as Eugene continues to weaken. The pressure gradient between ridging W of Baja California Norte and troughing across the Baja California peninsula is supporting gentle to moderate southerly flow across the Gulf of California, which is expected to persist through much of this week. Pulses of fresh winds are possible across the Gulf of Tehuantepec each night through Saturday, briefly building seas to 6-7 ft in the morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh nocturnal winds are expected across the Gulf of Papagayo the next several days with the strongest push expected Thu night into Fri with seas to 8 ft then. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected south of the monsoon trough axis. Long period cross- equatorial southerly swell and seas 6 to 7 ft are forecast west of Colombia and Ecuador. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnant low of Tropical Storm Eugene will dissipate by the weekend over the waters north of 25N between 123W and 128W. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail north of the convergence zone, while gentle to moderate southerly winds will be south of the trough axis. Seas will be generally 5 to 7 ft. Tropical depression Six-E will move westward through the next several days and possibly intensify to a hurricane within 48 hours. Otherwise little change is expected in the forecast waters south of 20N through Saturday. $$ Cobb