000 AXPZ20 KNHC 112113 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2019 UTC Tue Jul 11 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Eugene is centered near 21.7N 120.0W at 2100 UTC, or about 450 nm SW of Punta Eugenia, Mexico moving NW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained winds remain 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate convection is mainly within 60 to 90 nm north of the center. Eugene will continue to weaken, becoming a remnant low within 24 hours as it moves NW across cooler waters. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. A 1008 mb low pressure area is centered near 12N108W, moving W at 10 kt. Visible and infrared satellite imagery shows the deep convection associated with the disturbance becoming better organized with banding features in the NE and SW semicircles. The upper level outflow is well established and indications are this system could become a tropical cyclone within the next 24 to 48 hours. The low is expected to continue moving westward at around 10 kt. For additional details please refer to the Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook at http://www.nhc.nooa.gov. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The southern extent of a tropical wave along 91W/92W is N of 12N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from low pressure in the SW Caribbean near 10N79W across Costa Rica to 10N86W to 08N95W to a low near 12N108W, then resumes from 13N120W to 11N130W. The ITCZ axis continues from 11N130W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 120-180 nm either side of the ITCZ and monsoon trough between 125W and 140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 240 nm S of the axis between 85W and 100W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High winds and large seas associated with Tropical Storm Eugene will remain west of the Baja California offshore zones. Swell generated by the tropical cyclone will keep seas 8-10 ft in the offshore waters zones through mid-day Wed even as Eugene continues to weaken. The pressure gradient between ridging W of Baja California Norte and troughing across the Baja California peninsula is supporting gentle to moderate southerly flow across the Gulf of California, which is expected to persist through much of this week. Pulses of fresh winds are possible across the Gulf of Tehuantepec each night through Saturday, briefly building seas to 6-7 ft in the morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh nocturnal winds are expected across the Gulf of Papagayo the next several days with the strongest push expected Thu night into Fri with seas to 8 ft then. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected south of the monsoon trough axis. Long period cross- equatorial southerly swell and seas 6 to 7 ft are forecast west of Colombia and Ecuador. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnant low of Tropical Storm Eugene will dissipate by the weekend over the waters north of 25N between 123W and 128W. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail north of the convergence zone, while gentle to moderate southerly winds will be south of the trough axis. Seas will be generally 5 to 7 ft. Except for the possible tropical development of the low currently near 12N108W, little change is expected in the forecast waters south of 20N through Saturday. $$ Cobb