000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111520
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Jul 11 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Tropical Storm Eugene is centered near 21.3N 119.4W at 1500 UTC, 
moving NW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 
mb. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. 
Scattered moderate convection is mainly within 90 nm north of 
the center. Eugene will continue to weaken, becoming a remnant 
low within 36 to 48 hours as it moves NW across cooler waters. 
See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers 
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. 

A 1008 mb low pressure area is centered near 12N107W, moving W 
at 10 kt. Satellite imagery shows the deep convection associated 
with the disturbance becoming better organized with weak banding 
starting to develop, which is an indication it may develop into 
a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours. The low is expected 
to continue moving westward at around 10 kt.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

The southern extent of a tropical wave along 90W is N of 12N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from low pressure in the SW Caribbean 
near 10N79W across Costa Rica to 10N86W to 07N95W to a low near 
12N107W, then resumes from 13N119W to 11N130W. The ITCZ axis 
continues from 11N130W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection associated with the low is from 10N to 17N 
between 105W and 110W. Scattered moderate convection is within 
45 nm south of the axis between 123W and 134W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High winds and large seas associated with Tropical Storm Eugene 
will remain west of the Baja California offshore zones. Swell 
generated by the tropical cyclone will keep seas 8-10 ft in this 
area through early Wednesday even as Eugene continues to weaken.

The pressure gradient between ridging W of Baja California Norte
and troughing across the Baja California peninsula is supporting 
gentle to moderate southerly flow across the Gulf of California,
which is expected to persist through much of this week. Pulses 
of fresh winds are possible across the Gulf of Tehuantepec each 
night through Saturday, briefly building seas to 6-7 ft in the 
morning.
    
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh nocturnal winds are expected across the Gulf 
of Papagayo the next few days. Gentle to moderate southerly winds
are expected south of the monsoon trough axis. Long period 
cross-equatorial southerly swell and seas 6 to 7 ft are forecast 
west of Colombia and Ecuador.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The remnant low of Tropical Storm Eugene will dissipate over the 
waters north of 25N between 123W and 128W.  Elsewhere, moderate 
to fresh trade winds will prevail north of the convergence zone, 
while gentle to moderate southerly winds will be south of the 
trough axis. Seas will be generally 5 to 7 ft. Except for the 
possible development of the low currently near 12N107W, little 
change is expected in the forecast waters south of 20N through 
Saturday.

$$
Mundell