000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110241 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 101 UTC Tue Jul 11 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Eugene is centered near 20.2N 118.2W at 0300 UTC, or about 4855 nm SSW of Punta Eugenia Mexico, moving NW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained winds are now down to 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is now confined to within 90 nm in the W semicircle of the center. scattered moderate convection was noted within 90 nm in the E semicircle. Eugene is forecast to weaken rapidly, likely becoming a remnant low within 36 hours as it moves NW across cooler waters. See latest NHC Forecast/ Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 10N to 18N along 110W is moving W at 15 kt. A 1011 mb low was trailing the wave and was centered near 12.5N 105W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 120 to 150 nm in the SW semicircle of the low generally from 10.5N to 14N between 104W and 108W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Panama near 08N78W to near 08N94W to a 1011 mb low pressure area near 12.5N105W, then resumes from 12N119W to 11N130W. The ITCZ continues from 11N130W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 90-120 nm either side of the monsoon trough between Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm either side of the axis between 120W and 132W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The area of tropical storm force winds on the periphery of Eugene has moved further away from Clarion. Winds and seas are diminishing across the Revillagigedo Islands and the offshore waters within 250 nm of the coast from Cabo San Lazaro to Cabo San Lucas. The core of weakening T.S. Eugene is expected to remain to the west of the offshore zones through Tuesday. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh southerly flow will affect the waters beyond 250 nm off the coast of Baja California as Eugene moves NW roughly parallel to the peninsula through Wednesday. Large swell generated by the tropical cyclone will keep seas 8-11 ft in this area Tuesday and early Wednesday. Area of seas subsides below 8 ft over the offshore waters late Wednesday and Thursday. The pressure gradient between ridging W of Baja California Norte and troughing across the Baja California peninsula is supporting gentle to moderate southerly flow, which is expected to persist through much of this week. Pulses of fresh winds are possible across the Gulf of Tehuantepec each night through Friday, briefly building seas to 6-7 ft each morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh nocturnal winds are expected across the Gulf of Papagayo the next few days. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected south of the monsoon trough axis. Long period cross-equatorial southerly swell and seas to 6-7 ft west of Colombia and Ecuador will gradually subside through Wednesday. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for more information on Eugene. Outside of this area, moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough, while gentle to moderate southerly winds will be south of the trough axis. Seas will be generally 5 to 6 ft, except 6-7 ft near the Equator. Little change is expected in the waters south of 20N through the end of the week. $$ Cobb