000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102119
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2020 UTC Mon Jul 10 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Hurricane Eugene is centered near 19.4N 117.8W at 2100 UTC, or 
about 525 nm SSW of Punta Eugenia Mexico, moving NW at 9 kt. 
Estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb. Maximum sustained 
winds are now 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Scattered to numerous 
moderate convection is now confined to within 90 to 150 nm of 
the center. Eugene will weaken further during the next 24 to 36 
hours as it moves NW across cooler waters. See latest NHC 
Forecast/ Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC 
for more details. 

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

A tropical wave from 10N to 18N along 108W/109W is moving W at 
15 kt with scattered moderate convection within 120 to 180 nm
either side of the wave axis between 105W and 110W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from low pressure near 10N76W across 
Panama and Costa Rica to 08N92W to a 1011 mb low pressure area
near 11N105W, then resumes from 12N120W to 10N135W. The ITCZ 
continues from 10N135W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection is within 180 to 240 nm S of the axis between
85W and 95W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The area of tropical storm force winds on the periphery of 
Eugene is moving away from Clarion. Winds and seas are expected 
to diminish across the Revillagigedo Islands and the offshore 
waters within 250 nm of the coast from Cabo San Lazaro to Cabo
San Lucas through Tuesday as the tropical cyclone moves away and
weakens rapidly.

Elsewhere, moderate to fresh southerly flow will affect the 
waters beyond 250 nm off the coast of Baja California as Eugene 
moves NW roughly parallel to the peninsula through Wednesday. 
Large swell generated by the tropical cyclone will increase seas 
to 8-11 ft in this area Tuesday and early Wednesday. Area of seas
subsides by late Wednesday and Thursday.

The pressure gradient between ridging W of Baja California Norte
and troughing across the Baja California peninsula is supporting 
gentle to moderate southerly flow, which is expected to persist 
through much of this week. Pulses of fresh winds are possible 
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec each night through Friday, 
briefly building seas to 6-7 ft each morning.
    
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh nocturnal winds are expected across the Gulf 
of Papagayo the next few days. Gentle to moderate southerly 
winds are expected south of the monsoon trough axis. Long period 
cross-equatorial southerly swell and seas to 6-7 ft west of 
Colombia and Ecuador will gradually subside through Wednesday.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See the Special Features section for more information on Eugene.
Outside of this area, moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail 
north of the monsoon trough, while gentle to moderate southerly 
winds will be south of the trough axis. Seas will be generally 5 
to 6 ft, except 6-7 ft near the Equator. Little change is 
expected in the waters south of 20N through the end of the week.

$$
Cobb