000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100241
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Jul 10 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Hurricane Eugene is centered near 17.6N 115.9W at 10/0300 UTC, 
about 270 nm WSW of Socorro moving NW at 10 kt. Estimated 
minimum pressure is 972 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 90 kt 
with gusts to 110 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong 
convection is within 100 nm of the center. Eugene will weaken 
further tonight and move NW over cooler water. See latest NHC 
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC 
for more details. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave north of 09N along 107W is moving W at 15 kt. 
Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 12N east of the 
wave axis to 104W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough axis extends westward from low pressure near 
09N74W across Panama and Costa Rica to 11N109W, then resumes 
from 12N119W to 10N133W. The ITCZ continues from 10N133W to 
10N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 60 nm 
either side of a line from 09N82W to 07N84W to 06N90W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The area of tropical storm force winds will be near Clarion as 
Eugene passes SW of the island, with fresh to strong winds and 
seas to 11 ft along with occasional squalls elsewhere across the 
Revillagigedo Islands through early Monday. 

Elsewhere, moderate to fresh southerly flow will affect the 
waters beyond 200 nm off the coast of Baja California as Eugene 
moves NW roughly parallel to the peninsula through Tuesday. 
Large swell generated by the tropical cyclone will increase seas 
to 8-11 ft in this area.

The pressure gradient between ridging W of Baja California Norte
and troughing across the Baja California peninsula is supporting 
moderate southerly flow N of 29N, which will diminish through 
Tuesday as the ridge shifts west and weakens in response to the 
approaching tropical cyclone. The moderate to fresh southerly 
flow will return as Eugene weakens and ridging builds eastward. 

Farther south, brief pulses of fresh to occasionally strong 
winds are possible across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight and 
early Monday, with seas briefly building to 7 ft Monday morning.
    
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh nocturnal winds are expected over the Gulf of 
Papagayo the next couple of days. Gentle to moderate southerly 
winds are expected south of the monsoon trough axis. Long period 
cross-equatorial southerly swell and seas to 6-8 ft west of 
Colombia and Ecuador will continue through Monday night.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See the Special Features section for more information on Eugene. 
Outside of this area, moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail 
north of the monsoon trough, while gentle to moderate southerly 
winds will be south of the trough axis. Seas will be generally 5 
to 7 ft, except to 7-8 ft near the equator. Little change is 
expected in the waters south of 20N through mid week.

$$
Mundell