000 AXPZ20 KNHC 092115 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Jul 9 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Eugene is centered near 16.7N 115.3W at 09/2100 UTC or about 265 nm SW of Socorro moving NW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum pressure is 965 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is within 135 nm of the center. Eugene is forecast to continue moving NW and then start to weaken tonight. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave north of 08N along 105W is moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 14N east of the wave axis to 102W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends westward from low pressure near 09N74W across Panama and Costa Rica to 12N102W to 13N111W, then resumes from 11N119W to 10N123W to 12N130W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 45 nm either side of a line from 08N79W to 06N83W to 06N88W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The area of tropical storm force winds will be near or over the island of Clarion as Eugene passes SW of the island, with fresh to strong winds and seas to 12 ft along with occasional squalls elsewhere across the Revillagigedo Islands through Monday. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh southerly flow will affect the waters beyond 200 nm off the coast of Baja California as Eugene moves NW parallel to the peninsula through Tuesday. Large swell generated by Eugene will increase seas to 8-11 ft in this area. The pressure gradient between ridging W of Baja California Norte and troughing across the Baja California peninsula is supporting moderate southerly flow N of 29N, which will diminish through Tuesday as the ridge shifts west and weakens in response to the approaching tropical cyclone. The moderate to fresh southerly flow will return as Eugene weakens and ridging builds eastward. Farther south, brief pulses of fresh to occasionally strong winds are possible across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight and early Monday, with seas briefly building to 7 ft Monday morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh nocturnal winds are expected over the Gulf of Papagayo the next couple of days. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected south of the monsoon trough axis. Long period cross-equatorial southerly swell and seas to 6-8 ft west of Colombia and Ecuador will continue through Monday night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for more information on Eugene. Outside of this area, moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough, while gentle to moderate southerly winds will be south of the trough axis. Seas will be generally 5 to 7 ft, except to 7-8 ft near the equator. Little change is expected in the waters south of 20N through mid week. $$ Mundell