000 AXPZ20 KNHC 091514 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1514 UTC Sun Jul 9 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Eugene is centered near 16.0N 114.6W at 09/1500 UTC or about 491 nm SW of the southern tip of Baja California moving NNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed has increased to 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt making Eugene a major hurricane. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is from 12N to 19N between 112W and 117W. Eugene is forecast to begin to weaken on Monday while continuing to move generally NNW during the next couple of days. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends N of 09N along 104W/105W moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 11N to 17N E of the tropical wave axis to 100W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure near 09N75W to 08N90W to 11N101W, then resumes from 12N117W to 10N122W to low pressure near 14N133W to 10N140W. The intertropical convergence zone axis begins at 10N140W and continues west of the area. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 02N to 08N E of 83W, within 120 nm SW of a line from 05N92W to 09N101W, and from 08N to 13N between 92W an 97W. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 13N between 128W and 131W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The area of tropical storm force winds will be near or over the island of Socorro as Eugene passes by to the SW-W, with fresh to strong winds and seas to 12 ft along with occasional squalls elsewhere across the Revillagigedo Islands through Monday. Elsewhere, moderate to occasionally fresh southerly flow will cover the waters beyond 200 nm off the coast of the Baja California peninsula as Eugene moves NW and parallel to the region through early next week. Swell generated from Eugene will bring seas of 8 to 11 ft to the same areas, eventually mixing with northerly swell off the coast of Baja California Norte by mid week. The pressure gradient between ridging W of Baja California Norte and troughing across the Baja California peninsula is supporting moderate southerly flow generally N of 29N. This will diminish during the next couple of days as the ridge shifts west and weakens in response to the approach of Eugene. The moderate to fresh southerly flow will increase again by mid week as Eugene weakens and the ridge builds eastward. Farther S, fresh nocturnal northerly flow in the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning is diminishing, with a brief pulse of fresh to strong flow expected tonight into early Monday before diminishing. Seas will briefly reach 8 ft by early Monday with the strong winds. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal winds are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo through the remainder of the morning, then will diminish during the afternoon hours before increasing to fresh to strong tonight into early Monday. Similar conditions will occur Monday night into early Tuesday. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected S of the monsoon trough. Long period cross- equatorial southerly swell and seas to 6-8 ft west of Colombia and Ecuador will continue through the early part of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for more information on Hurricane Eugene. Outside of this area, moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail N of the monsoon trough, while gentle to moderate southerly winds will be S of the trough axis. Seas will generally range from 5 to 7 ft, except near the equator where cross-equatorial southerly swell around 8 ft will linger through the early part of the week. Little change is expected through mid week. $$ Lewitsky