000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090930 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 843 UTC Sun Jul 9 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Eugene is centered near 15.2N 114.1W at 09/0900 UTC or about 520 nm SSW of southern tip of Baja California moving NW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is from 12N to 17N between 112W and 116W. Eugene is expected to move NW and intensify...passing W of the Baja peninsula. Environmental conditions remain favorable for it to strengthen during the next 24 hours. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends N of 12N along 99W/100W moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is N of 12N between 96W and 102W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from 08N78W TO 08N88W to 12N102W... then resumes from 10N117W to 11N128W to 10N135W. The ITCZ extends from 10N135W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 03N to 08N E of 81W...and N of 14N between 93W and 96W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 08N between 90W and 96W...and from 11N to 13N between 128W and 130W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... While the area of tropical storm force winds is expected to stay well W of the islands of Clarion and Socorro...strong winds and seas to 12 ft along with occasional squalls will impact the waters around the Revillagigedo Islands through Monday as Eugene makes its closest point of approach to the region. Elsewhere... moderate to occasionally fresh southerly flow will cover the waters beyond 200 nm off the coast of the Baja California peninsula as Eugene moves NW and parallel to the region through early next week. Swell generated from Eugene will bring seas of 8 to 11 ft to the same areas...eventually mixing with northerly swell off the coast of Baja California Norte by mid week. The pressure gradient between ridging W of Baja California Norte and troughing across the Baja California peninsula is supporting moderate southerly flow generally N of 29N. This will diminish during the next couple of days as the ridge shifts west and weakens in response to the approach of Eugene. The moderate to fresh southerly flow will increase again by mid week as Eugene weakens and the ridge builds eastward. Farther south...nocturnal winds will pulse to a max of 20 kt each night in the Gulf of Tehuantepec...then diminish during the day. Southerly swell will continue to propagate into the waters S of 20N with seas occasionally reaching 8 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal winds are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo this morning, then increase, becoming fresh to strong at night Sunday through Tuesday. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected south of the monsoon trough. Long period cross-equatorial southerly swell and seas to 6-8 ft west of Colombia and Ecuador will continue through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section for more information on Hurricane Eugene. Outside of this area...moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough...while gentle to moderate southerly winds will be south of the trough axis. Seas will generally range from 5 to 7 ft. Little change is expected through mid week. $$ HUFFMAN