000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090240 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 239 UTC Sun Jul 9 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Newly upgraded Hurricane Eugene is located about 560 nm SSW of southern tip of Baja California, centered near 14.3N 113.5W at 0300 UTC, moving NW at 7 kt with maximum sustained winds of 70 kt and gusts to 85 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 110W and 116W. Eugene is expected to move NW and intensify, passing west of the Baja peninsula. Environmental conditions remain favorable for it to strengthen over the next 24 hours. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends along roughly 97W/98W north of 08N into central Mexico, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 15N between 95W and 105W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W TO 08N90W to 15N107W, then resumes from 11N115W to 11N135W. The intertropical convergence zone reaches from 11N135W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 06N to 10N between 90W and 95W. Scattered moderate convection from 09N to 12N between 125W and 140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... While the area of tropical storm force winds is expected to stay well west of the islands of Clarion and Socorro, strong winds and seas to 12 ft along with occasional squalls will impact the waters around the Revillagigedo Islands through Monday as Eugene makes its closest point of approach to the region. Elsewhere, moderate to occasionally fresh southerly flow will cover the waters beyond 200 nm off the coast of the Baja California peninsula as Eugene moves northwest and parallel to the region through early next week. Swell generated from Eugene will bring seas of 8 to 10 ft to the same areas, eventually mixing with northerly swell off the coast of Baja California Norte by mid week. The pressure gradient between ridging west of Baja California Norte and troughing over the Baja California peninsula is tight enough to support moderate to fresh southerly flow over the northern portion of the Gulf of California tonight. This will diminish over the next couple of days as the ridge weakens in response to the approach of Eugene. The moderate to fresh southerly flow will increase again by mid week as Eugene weakens and the ridge builds eastward. Farther south, nocturnal winds will pulse to a max of 20 kt each night in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, then diminish during the day. Southerly swell will continue to propagate into the waters south of 20N with seas occasionally reaching 8 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal winds are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo this weekend, then increase, becoming fresh to strong at night Sunday through Tuesday. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected south of the monsoon trough. Long period cross-equatorial southerly swell and seas to 6-7 ft west of Colombia and Ecuador will continue through early next week then subside through mid week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section for more information on Hurricane Eugene. Outside of this area...moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough...while gentle to moderate southerly winds will be south of the trough axis. Seas will generally range from 5 to 7 ft. Little change is expected through mid week. $$ Christensen