000 AXPZ20 KNHC 082136 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2136 UTC Sat Jul 8 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Eugene is located about 580 nm SSW of southern tip of Baja California, centered near 13.7N 113.4W at 2100 UTC, moving NW at 7 kt with maximum sustained winds of 60 kt and gusts to 75 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted from 11N to 15N between 109W and 116W. Eugene is expected to move NW and intensify, passing west of the Baja peninsula. Environmental conditions remain favorable for it to strengthen, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane within 24 hours. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends along roughly 96W/97W north of 08N into the SW Gulf of Mexico, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 13N between 95W and 105W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W TO 08N90W to 13N105W, then resumes from 11N115W to 11N135W. The intertropical convergence zone reaches from 11N135W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is evident from 05N to 10N E of 82W and between 89W and 92W. Scattered moderate convection from 09N to 11N between 125W and 140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... While the area of tropical storm force winds is expected to stay well west of Clarion Islands, strong winds and seas to 12 ft along with occasional squalls will impact the waters around Clarion Islands through Monday as Eugene makes its closest point of approach to the region. Elsewhere, moderate to occasionally fresh southerly flow will cover the waters beyond 200 nm off the coast of the Baja California peninsula as Eugene moves northwest and parallel to the region through early next week. Swell generated from Eugene will bring seas of 8 to 10 ft to the same areas, eventually mixing with northerly swell off the coast of Baja California Norte by mid week. The pressure gradient between ridging west of Baja California Norte and troughing over the Baja California peninsula is tight enough to support moderate to fresh southerly flow over the northern portion of the Gulf of California tonight. This will diminish over the next couple of days as the ridge weakens in response to the approach of Eugene. The moderate to fresh southerly flow will increase again by mid week as Eugene weakens and the ridge builds eastward. Farther south, nocturnal winds will pulse to a max of 20 kt each night in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, then diminish during the day. Southerly swell will continue to propagate into the waters south of 20N with seas occasionally reaching 8 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal winds are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo this weekend, then increase, becoming fresh to strong at night Sunday through Tuesday. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected south of the monsoon trough. Long period cross-equatorial southerly swell and seas to 6-7 ft west of Colombia and Ecuador will continue through early next week then subside through mid week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section for more information on Tropical Storm Eugene. Outside of this area...moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough...while gentle to moderate southerly winds will be south of the trough axis. Seas will generally range from 5 to 7 ft. Little change is expected through mid week. $$ Christensen