000 AXPZ20 KNHC 081537 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Jul 8 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Eugene is located about 600 nm SSW of southern tip of Baja California, centered near 13.6N 112.8W at 1500 UTC, moving NW at 8 kt with maximum sustained winds of 50 kt and gusts to 60 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted from 11N to 15N between 109W and 115W. Eugene is expected to move NW and intensify, passing west of the Baja peninsula. Environmental conditions remain favorable for it to strengthen, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane within 24 hours. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends along 96W north of 05N into the SW Gulf of Mexico, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 07N to 13N between 92W and 98W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from 08N77W TO 11N103W, then resumes from 11N117W to a low near 13N130W. The ITCZ continues westward from 13N130W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is evident from 04N to 07N E of 81W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 100 nm south of the trough axis elsewhere between 99W and 134W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge extends across the waters W of Baja California from 28N130W to 21N116W. Gentle to moderate N-NW flow prevails W of the Baja California peninsula, moderate to occasionally fresh N winds are across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and light to gentle winds are present in the Gulf of California. Seas are 4-6 ft in the open waters W of Mexico, with 2-3 ft seas in the Gulf of California. Nocturnal winds will pulse to a max of 20 kt each night in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, then diminish during the day. Tropical Storm Eugene is forecast to impact only the extreme SW waters of the PMZ015 offshore waters zone, beyond 200 nm from shore, between early Sunday into Monday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal winds are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo this weekend, then increase, becoming fresh to strong at night Sunday through Tuesday. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected south of the monsoon trough. Long period cross-equatorial southerly swell and seas to 6-7 ft west of Colombia and Ecuador will continue through Monday. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section for more information on Tropical Storm Eugene. Outside of this area...moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough...while gentle to moderate southerly winds will be south of the trough axis. Seas will generally range from 5 to 7 ft. Little change is expected through Tuesday. $$ Mundell