000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070926
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
745 UTC Fri Jul 7 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A broad low pressure area embedded in the Monsoon Trough is 
centered near 11N109W and moving W-NW at about 10 kt. Scattered 
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 14N
between 104W and 116W. Recent infrared satellite imagery shows 
cyclonically curved convective bands around the circulation 
center in an area of low vertical shear. This environment is 
expected to remain favorable for the low to strengthen...and it 
is likely to become a tropical cyclone within the next day or so.
A recent 07/0406 UTC ASCAT scatterometer pass indicated 
southwesterly 20-25 kt monsoonal flow within 180 nm in the SE 
quadrant of the low. This in conjunction with long period cross-
equatorial swell is generating an area of 8 to locally 10 ft 
seas.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 10N87W to across inland portions of
western Honduras near 15N88W moving W at 20 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is from 09N to 12N between 82W and 89W.

Tropical wave extends from 15N98W to across inland portions of
central Mexico near 22N99W moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is from 14N to 17N between 96W and
101W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
The Monsoon Trough extends from 08N78W to 09N92W to 12N99W then
from low pressure near 11N109W to 10N114W to 13N120W to 09N140W.
Widely scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 11N between
76W and 94W. Scattered moderate convection is from 14N to 17N
between 96W and 101W...and from 09N to 13N between 126W and 134W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A ridge extends across the waters W of Baja California from
30N128W to 20N11W. Gentle to moderate N-NW flow prevails W of 
the Baja California peninsula...moderate to fresh N winds in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec...and light to gentle winds across the Gulf 
of California. Seas are ranging 4-6 ft in the open waters W of 
Mexico...with 1-3 ft seas in the Gulf of California. Nocturnal 
winds will pulse to a max of 20 kt each night in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec...then diminish during the day. Little change is 
expected elsewhere.
    
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 
Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal winds are expected in the 
Gulf of Papagayo for the remainder of this week. Gentle to 
moderate southerly winds are expected S of the Monsoon Trough. 
Long period cross-equatorial S to SW swell and seas to 6-8 ft W 
of Colombia and Ecuador will continue gradually subsiding Friday 
into the weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
See special feature section for more information on the low 
centered near 11N109W. Outside the influence of this area... 
gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail N of the Monsoon 
Trough...while moderate to fresh southerly winds will be S of 
the trough axis. Seas will be generally 5-7 ft. Overall these 
conditions are expected to prevail through the weekend.

$$
HUFFMAN