000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061550
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Jul 6 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A broad low pressure area in the monsoon trough has formed near 
11.5N122W. It is moving slowly westward at about 5 kt. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 180 nm of 
the circulation center, roughly from 08.5N to 14N between 103W 
and 109W. Satellite imagery shows broad cyclonically curved 
convective bands around the circulation center in an area of low 
vertical shear, which is very favorable for further development. 
Environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable for 
the low to strengthen, and it could become a tropical cyclone 
within the next 48 hours. Please refer to the NHC Tropical 
Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for more information. 20-25 kt 
monsoonal flow in conjunction with long period cross-equatorial 
swell has produced a band of 7 to 9 ft seas within the SE 
semicircle of the low out to 150 nm. Expect gale force cyclonic 
winds to develop around the low through Tuesday as it tracks 
generally northwestward in open waters SW of the Baja Peninsula.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave along 95W north of 11N is moving W at 10 to 15 
kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 90 nm east 
of the wave axis. 

A tropical wave along 122W from 13N to 22N moving west at 10 kt 
has a weakening exposed low level center near 18.5N122W with 
minimal convection. The low is expected to dissipate within 36 
hours, with the parent tropical wave continuing westard, and 
crossing 140W in about 90 hours.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 09N83W to 12N97W 
to 12N104W through the low near 11.5N106W to 09N110W to 12N122W 
to 11N130W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is observed elsewhere along the monsoon trough within 
90 nm north and 120 nm south of the trough axis between 82W and 
124W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge of high pressure extends across the waters west of Baja 
California. Light to moderate anticyclonic flow prevails west of 
the Baja California peninsula, moderate to fresh N winds in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec, and light to gentle winds over the Gulf of 
California. Seas are 4-6 ft in the open waters west of Mexico, 
with 1-2 ft seas in the Gulf of California. Nocturnal winds will 
pulse to a max of 20 kt each night in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 
then diminish during the day. Little change expected elsewhere.
    
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal winds are expected in the 
Gulf of Papagayo this week. Gentle to moderate southerly winds 
are expected south of the monsoon trough this week. Long period 
cross-equatorial S to SW swell and seas to 8-9 ft W of Colombia 
and Ecuador will subside Friday through Saturday.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
  
See special feature section for more information on the low 
centered near 11.5N112W. Outside the influence of this area, 
gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail north of the monsoon 
trough, while moderate to fresh southerly winds will be south of 
the trough axis. Seas will be generally 5-7 ft. These general 
conditions are expected to prevail through the rest of the week.

$$ 
Mundell