000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050218
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 UTC Wed Jul 5 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

The axis of a tropical wave extends from near 19N115W to 
10N113W, with a broad 1007 mb surface low along the wave near 
16N115W. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection are 
within 150 nm of the west semicircle of the low, with scattered 
moderate convection within 150 nm of the east semicircle. An 
afternoon scatterometer pass indicated winds to 30 kt associated 
with a rain band far removed to the west from the poorly 
organized low center. Seas are anticipated to currently be near 8
to 9 ft associated with these winds. Additional development of 
this system is possible over the next day or so, and a tropical 
depression could form during that time while it moves west- 
northwest. Please refer to the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook for 
the East Pacific at hurricanes.gov for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A westward moving tropical wave has an axis that extends from 
near 17N106W to 06N103W. Scattered moderate convection is within
150 nm of the wave axis south of 14N. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to 10N110W, then resumes 
from the special features low pres near 16N115W to 11N125W to 
10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection are from
06N to 14N E of 88W, from 06N to 14N between 94W and 103W, and 
within 300 nm south of the monsoon trough axis between 115W and 
124W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 12N between 
124W and 140W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered northwest of the discussion waters has a 
ridge axis that extends across the waters west of Baja 
California. Light to moderate anticyclonic flow prevails west of 
the Baja California peninsula, moderate to fresh winds over the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec, and light to gentle winds over the Gulf of 
California. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the open waters off
the coast of Mexico, with seas 1-2 ft over the Gulf of 
California. Through the remainder of the week, nocturnal winds 
will pulse to fresh to strong each night in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, and diminish to moderate to fresh during the 
afternoon hours. Winds will remain in the light to gentle 
category over the Gulf of California through much of the forecast
period, increasing to gentle to locally moderate by Saturday. 
Elsewhere gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the week.
    
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal winds are expected in the 
Gulf of Papagayo for the remainder of this week. Gentle to 
moderate southerly winds are expected south of the monsoon trough
this week. Long period SW swell to 9 ft will build seas west of 
Colombia and Ecuador Wed night and Thu, before beginning to 
subside Fri. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
  
Please refer to the special features section for more details on
the low pressure area centered near 16N115W. Elsewhere, high 
pressure north of the region supports mainly gentle to moderate 
winds north of the monsoon trough, except locally fresh winds 
within a few hundred miles north of the monsoon trough, west of 
130W. Moderate to fresh winds prevail south of the monsoon 
trough. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range across the region. These 
general conditions will prevail through the week. Long period 
southwesterly swell will build seas to 8 ft or greater north of 
the equator as far north as 10N and east of 120W by Thursday. 
Another area of low pressure is expected to develop along a 
tropical wave currently along 105W the next few days. Winds may 
increase to around 20 to 25 kt associated with this new low and 
convection around the low during this time frame. 

$$
Latto