000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042140
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2105 UTC Tue Jul 4 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean 
from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information 
is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

The axis of a tropical wave extends from near 19N114W to 10N113W,
with a broad 1008 mb surface low along the wave near 16N114W. 
Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection are within 150 
nm of the northwest semicircle of the low, with scattered 
moderate convection within 150 nm of the southeast semicircle. A 
recent scatterometer pass indicates winds to 30 kt associated 
with a rain band far removed to the west from the poorly 
organized low center. Seas are anticipated to currently be near 
8 ft associated with these winds. Additional development of this 
system is possible over the next day or two, and a tropical 
depression could form during that time while it moves west- 
northwest. Please refer to the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook for 
the East Pacific at hurricanes.gov for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A westward moving tropical wave has an axis that extends from 
near 18N105W to 07N101W. Scattered moderate convection is within
150 nm of the wave axis south of 14N. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 10N99W, then resumes
from the special features low pres near 16N114W to 11N130W to 
10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection are from
06N to 14N between 90W and 101W, and within 300 nm south of the
monsoon trough axis between 116W and 130W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 07N to 12N between 83W and 90W, from 05N to
11N between 110W and 115W, and from 06N to 10N between 130W and
138W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered northwest of the discussion waters has a 
ridge axis that extends across the waters west of Baja 
California. Light to moderate anticyclonic flow prevails west of 
the Baja California peninsula, moderate to fresh winds over the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec, and light to gentle winds over the Gulf of 
California. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the open waters off
the coast of Mexico, with seas 1-2 ft over the Gulf of 
California. Through the remainder of the week, nocturnal winds 
will pulse to fresh to strong each night in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, and diminish to moderate to fresh during the 
afternoon hours. Winds will remain in the light to gentle 
category over the Gulf of California through much of the forecast
period, increasing to gentle to locally moderate Saturday. 
Elsewhere gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the week.

    
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal winds are expected in the 
Gulf of Papagayo for the remainder of this week. Gentle to 
moderate southerly winds are expected south of the monsoon trough
this week. Long period SW swell to 9 ft will build seas west of 
Colombia and Ecuador Wed night and Thu, before beginning to 
subside Fri. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
  
Please refer to the special features section for more details on
the low pressure area centered near 16N114W. High pressure north
of the region supports mainly gentle to moderate winds north of
the monsoon trough, except locally fresh winds within a few 
hundred miles north of the monsoon trough, west of 130W. Moderate
to fresh winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in 
the 5-7 ft range across the region. These general conditions 
will prevail through the week. Long period southwesterly swell 
will build seas to 8 ft or greater north of the equator as far 
north as 10N and east of 120W by Thursday. Another area of low 
pressure is expected to develop along a tropical wave currently 
along 103W the next few days. Winds may increase to around 20 to 
25 kt associated with this new low and convection around the low
during this time frame. 

$$
Latto