000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041523
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1226 UTC Tue Jul 4 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 112W from 05N to 19N, with a
broad and disorganized 1008 mb surface low along the wave near 
16N112W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was 
noted within 120 nm southwest quadrant of the low. The overnight 
scatterometer pass indicated fresh to strong southerly monsoonal
flow south and southeast of the low center, with seas to 8 ft. 
Additional development of this system is possible, and a tropical
depression could form during the next 24 hours while it moves 
west- northwest. The low will be moving over cooler waters after 
then, and cyclogenesis will be less likely. Expect the band of 
fresh to locally strong monsoonal flow currently to shift west 
over the next 48 hours. Please refer to the NHC Tropical Weather 
Outlook for the East Pacific at hurricanes.gov for more 
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 101W from 05N to 15N.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted over the
southern portion of the wave south of 11N. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 08N96W to low pres
near 16N112W to 09N132W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection was noted within 120 nm north of the monsoon 
trough between 83W and 97W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection was noted within 90 nm north and 120 nm south of the 
monsoon trough between 97W and 102W. Scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection was noted within 120 nm southwest quadrant of 
the low embedded within the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection was noted within 150 nm south of the 
monsoon trough between 118W and 128W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge of high pressure extends across the waters west of Baja 
California. Light to moderate anticyclonic flow prevails west of
the Baja California peninsula, moderate to fresh winds over the
Gulf of Tehuantepec, and light to gentle winds over the Gulf of
California. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the open waters 
off the coast of Mexico, with seas 1-2 ft over the Gulf of 
California. Nocturnal winds will pulse to fresh to strong each 
night in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and diminish to moderate to 
fresh during the afternoon hours. Winds will remain in the light
to gentle category over the Gulf of California through much of 
the forecast period, increasing to gentle to locally moderate 
Saturday. Elsewhere gentle to moderate winds will prevail through
the week. 
    
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal winds are expected in the 
Gulf of Papagayo this week. Gentle to moderate southerly winds 
are expected south of the monsoon trough this week. Long period 
SW swell will build seas west of Colombia and Ecuador Wed night 
and Thu, before beginning to subside Fri. 


REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
  
See special features for more on the low pressure area centered 
near 16N112W. Outside the influence of this area, gentle to 
moderate winds prevail north of the monsoon trough, while 
moderate to fresh winds prevail south of the trough. Seas are in 
the 5-7 ft range. These general conditions will prevail through 
the week. Long period southwesterly swell will build seas to 8 ft
or greater north of the equator to around 05N and east of 120W 
by Thursday.

$$
AL