000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031602 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1346 UTC Mon Jul 3 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL LOWS, WAVES AND TROUGHS... A tropical wave is analyzed from 08N95W to 1795W. The wave has been moving W around 15 kt during the past 24 hours. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed within 90 nm either side of a line from 06N94W to 14N99W. A tropical wave is analyzed from 06N108W to 16N108W with a 1010 mb surface low located along the wave near 12N108W. This system has been moving W at around 10 kt during the past 24 hours. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen from 10N to 17N between 108W and 113W. Convection remains loosely organized. Moderate to fresh winds are observed in the E quadrant of the low with combined seas of 6 to 8 ft. A 1010 mb low pressure center is quasi-stationary along the monsoon trough near 11N120W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is flaring within 240 nm of the low. A surface trough is embedded in the ITCZ from 06N143W to 12N136W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 05N to 11N W of 136W. A surface low is forecast to develop within the monsoon trough near 11N98W tonight and move generally WNW on Tue and Wed, eventually reaching near 12N110W late Thu. Model guidance suggests this low will deepen more rapidly, possibly assuming tropical cyclone characteristics. At the least, mariners should expect fresh monsoonal flow with 7 to 9 ft seas, across the tropical waters from 07N to 11N between 106W and 116W on Fri. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends SW across the Gulf of Panama from 07N78W to 07N82W, then turns WNW through a tropical wave along 95W to 10N198W. The trough resumes near a 1010 mb surface low at 12N108W, then heads WSW through 1010 mb low pressure at 11N120W to 08N130W, where satellite-derived winds indicate that the ITCZ continues. The ITCZ extends W to 09N136W, the resumes on the other side of a surface trough W of 140W. Except as mentioned in the tropical lows, waves and troughs paragraph above, Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is observed within 90 nm of 0N86.5W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found from 06N to 09N between 126W and 130W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A WNW to ESE oriented ridge extends into the offshore waters along 28N123W to 27N115W. Gentle to locally moderate NW flow, accompanied by 3 to 5 ft seas, are forecast W of the Baja Peninsula through late Tue. The pressure gradient will then tighten beginning on Wed, with a moderate NW breeze developing W of Baja. Winds will increase fresh speeds N of 27N within 60 nm of the coast during the late afternoons. Model guidance is suggesting that the pressure gradient will continue to tighten, with fresh NW winds prevailing to the N of 28N from late Fri through Sat. Moderate cyclonic flow is expected across the waters between 101W and 108W today as a surface low passes S of the offshore waters. Gulf of Tehuantepec...Strong N-NE drainage flow will continue across the gulf waters southwestward within 30 nm either side of a line from 16N95W to 15N95.5W and 97W until this afternoon. Strong N flow will develop again each night this week. Model guidance is suggesting a significant gap event will occur late Fri night, with seas building to 9 ft downstream of the gulf waters near 15N95W. Gulf of California...A surface low will develop intermittently over the far northern gulf waters as a thermal trough meanders S from the low across the Baja Peninsula and gulf waters this week. A light to gentle, mostly southerly, breeze is expected this week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo...Fresh to locally strong NE-E flow expected early this morning, then moderate to locally fresh nocturnal NE- E winds are then forecast this week with seas building to 6 ft during the strongest winds. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are forecast elsewhere early this week. Long period SW swell in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas, will reach the equator on Wed night and affect the waters W of Colombia and Ecuador, and then begin to subside on Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See tropical lows, waves and troughs paragraph above. A NW to SE oriented ridge will extend across the area. Moderate to fresh NE winds are expected from 11N to 27N W of 128W today. A trough will develop from 12N134W to 29N130W on Tue, drift W on Wed and Thu passing 140W on Fri all the while accompanied by a gentle NE to E to SE wind shift. Long period S swell, in the form of 7-9 ft seas will cross the equator between 93W and 115W on Wed night, and reach along 10N on Fri. $$ CAM