000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030220 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Jul 3 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...TROPICAL LOWS AND WAVES... A tropical wave north of 07N along 93W is moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave is enhancing convection over Central America, and along the monsoon trough axis. A tropical wave along 107W from 05N to 15N has a surface low in phase with the wave near 11.5N107W. The wave and low are moving west at 10-15 kt. A broad band of scattered moderate convection is south of the low from 07N to 10N between 103W and 109W, and another disorganized area of scattered moderate isolated strong convection is near the low from 10N to 14N between 104W and 110W. The low is forecast to move WNW at 10 kt the next few days. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 08N87W to 13N98W to 1008 mb low pressure near 11.5N107W to 12N116W to 09N124W. The ITCZ continues from 09N124W to 08N140W. Except as mentioned above, scattered moderate to strong convection is from 05N to 08N between 79W and 85W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 08N to 11N between 91W and 97W, and within 90 nm either side of the axis between 116W and 136W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A WNW to ESE oriented ridge axis extends into the area. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds and 4-7 ft seas continue west of the Baja Peninsula. The pressure gradient will gradually relax as the high to the NW weakens during the next few days. Gentle to moderate NW breezes and 3 to 6 ft seas are expected W of Baja the remainder of the week. Moderate cyclonic flow is expected across the waters between 98W and 108W through early Mon in association with a surface low passing to the S of the offshore waters. The tropical wave along 90W will pass south of southern Mexico through Tuesday, to help induce fresh to strong north winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Fresh southerly winds north of 30N in the Gulf of California will continue to diminish overnight. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo...Strong ENE winds are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo early Monday, with fresh nocturnal winds expected to continue through the remainder of the week. Gentle to moderate southerly winds will prevail elsewhere across the area. Long period SW swell will build seas west of Ecuador above 8 ft by Thursday night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A NW to SE oriented ridge extends across the area. Fresh N winds north of 30N and east of 125W with 7-8 ft seas will gradually diminish through Monday night. Moderate anticyclonic flow is forecast elsewhere west of 120W, with 4-6 ft seas expected. Cyclonic winds associated with the broad low centered near 10N106W in addition to pre-existing SW swell maintains an area of 8 ft seas from 08N to 10N between 104W and 115W. Seas will subside below 8 ft tonight as the cross-equatorial swell decays. $$ Mundell