000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022123
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Jul 2 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL LOWS AND WAVES...

A tropical wave north of 08N along 90W is moving W around 15 kt. 
The wave is enhancing convection over Central America, and along 
the monsoon trough axis.

A tropical wave along 106W from 05N to 15N has a surface low in 
phase with the wave near 11N106W. The wave and low are moving 
west at 10-15 kt. A broad band of scattered moderate convection 
is south of the low from 07N to 10N between 102W and 110W, and 
another disorganized band of scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is north of the low from 13.5N to 16N between 103W 
and 108W. The low is forecast to move W-NW at 10 kt during the 
next few days.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 08N77W to 08N86W to 13N99W to 
1008 mb low pressure near 11N106W to 12N115W to 08N125W. The 
ITCZ continues from 08N125W to 08N135W to 07N140W. Except as 
mentioned above, numerous moderate scattered strong convection 
is from 05N to 08N between 79W and 83W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection from 08N to 11N between 92W and 96W, 
and within 30 nm north and 90 nm south of the axis between 116W 
and 132W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A WNW to ESE oriented ridge axis extends into the area. Moderate 
to locally fresh NW winds and 4-7 ft seas continue west of the 
Baja Peninsula. The pressure gradient will gradually relax as 
the high to the NW weakens during the next few days. Gentle to 
moderate NW breezes and 3 to 6 ft seas are expected W of Baja 
the remainder of the week.
 
Moderate cyclonic flow is expected across the waters between 98W
and 108W through early Mon in association with a surface low 
passing to the S of the offshore waters. The tropical wave along 
90W will pass south of southern Mexico through Tuesday, and help 
induce fresh to strong north winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 
Fresh to strong southerly winds currently N of 30N in the Gulf 
of California will diminish overnight.
    
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo...Strong ENE winds are expected in the Gulf of 
Papagayo early Monday, with fresh nocturnal winds expected for 
the remainder of the week. Gentle to moderate southerly winds 
will prevail elsewhere across the area. Long period SW swell 
will build seas west of Ecuador above 8 ft by Thursday night.
 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
  
A NW to SE oriented ridge extends across the area from 32N136W 
to 20N112W. Fresh northerly winds north of 30N and east of 125W 
with 7-8 ft seas will gradually diminish through Monday night. 
Moderate anticyclonic flow is forecast elsewhere west of 120W, 
with 4-6 ft seas expected. Cyclonic winds associated with the 
broad low centered near 10N106W in addition to pre-existing SW 
swell maintains an area of 8 ft seas from 06N to 09N between 
102W and 115W. Seas will subside below 8 ft tonight as the 
cross-equatorial swell decays.

$$
Mundell