000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020944 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Jul 02 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...TROPICAL Lows and WAVES... A 1008 mb surface low appears intermittently along the Pacific coast of Colombia at 08N77W, and is currently accompanied by scattered moderate to strong convection to the N of 03N and to the E of 82W. This low center should lose identity in the monsoon trough later today. A tropical wave is analyzed to the N of 09N along 89W, and has been moving w at 15 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave has been enhancing clusters of tstms over Central America, and expect tstms to develop over Guatemala and the Yucatan Peninsula today. A tropical wave is analyzed from 06N104W to 16N105W with a 1008 mb surface low along the wave near 10N104.5W. The system has been moving W at 10 kt over the past 24 hours. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is currently observed within 480 nm over the E semicircle of the low. Although the convection occasionally organizes in bands, the bands have not been persistent. The low is forecast to move W-NW over the next few days accompanied by moderate cyclonic flow within 180 nm over the N semicircle. A 1009 mb low pressure center is analyzed along the monsoon trough at 10N120W with isolated moderate to occasionally strong convection flaring within 180 nm over the S quadrant. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends NW from an intermittent surface low off the Pacific coast of Colombia at 08N77W to 11N97W, then continues W through an embedded surface low at 10N104.5W and through another embedded surface low at 10N120W to 08N132W where scatterometer winds indicate that the ITCZ develops and continues W to beyond 07N140W. Except as mentioned with the surface lows and tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed mainly to the S of the monsoon trough within 90 nm either side of a line from 06N106W to 09N116W to 07N127W. A low level trough extends from 06N137W to 13N132W with scattered moderate convection flaring to the N of 10N, and to S OF 07N within 90 nm either side of the trough. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A NW to SE orientated ridge axis extends into the area along 20N116W to 19N106W. Moderate to locally fresh NW flow, with 4 to 7 ft seas, are forecast W of the Baja Penisula this morning, except for a batch of long period NW swell in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas that will extend across the waters 200 nm seaward and N of 27N. The pressure gradient will relax later today, with a gentle to moderate NW breeze, and 3 to 6 ft seas forecast W of Baja this week. Moderate cyclonic flow is expected across the waters between 100W and 108W through early Mon in association with a surface low S of the offshore waters. Gulf of Tehuantepec...Strong northerly nocturnal drainage flow will continue across the gulf to along 14N between 95W and 97W through Mon morning, then develop again each night this week. Gulf of California...A surface low will develop near 32N115W along a N to S orientated thermal trough. Fresh to locally strong southerly flow is forecast to the N of 30N today with seas building to 6 ft in the open fetch waters. Gentle to moderate southerly flow is expected elsewhere. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo...Strong NE-E flow expected tonight, then fresh nocturnal NE-E winds are then forecast this week with seas building to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate southerly winds forecast elsewhere this week with 3 to 6 ft seas primarily due to cross-equatorial SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See tropical low and waves paragraph above. A NW to SE orientated ridge will extend across the area. Fresh NW to N winds are expected to the N of 30N and E of 125W today with 7-9 ft seas. Moderate anticyclonic flow forecast elsewhere to the W of 120W, with 4-6 ft seas. Long period southerly swell, in the form of 7-9 ft seas, currently across the tropical waters S of 10N between 100W and 116W, will subside this morning with seas below 8 ft tonight. $$ Nelson