000 AXPZ20 KNHC 012048 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2048 UTC Sat Jul 1 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave along 85W-86W moving off the coast of Nicaragua is moving west at 15 kt, accompanied by scattered thunderstorms over land. A tropical wave analyzed from 06N103W to low pressure near 10N103W 1010 mb to 06N130W, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is evident near the low center. The low is expected to remain fairly weak as it moves west-northwest to near 14N110W through Monday night. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends west from Panama near 08N78W to 11N86W to 10N125W. The intertropical convergence zone reaches from 06N135W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed from 07N to 12N between 95W and 105W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Ridging along roughly 25N will maintain gentle to moderate northerly winds off Baja California over the next several days. Long period NW swell with 7-9 ft seas will arrive near 30N120W, continue south to near 28N120W tonight, then subside to 5-7 ft late Sun. Gentle to moderate winds and 3-5 ft seas are expected elsewhere across the open waters north of the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the middle of next week. Gulf of Tehuantepec...The combination of relatively tight gradient between ridging north of the area and broad low pressure to the south along with local overnight drainage effects will allow strong northerly gap flow through the Gulf of Tehuantepec starting late tonight. Seas will build to 7 ft. Expect similar conditions through late next week during overnight hours. Gulf of California...Enhanced troughing along the Colorado River valley into Baja California Norte will support fresh to strong southerly flow with seas to 5 ft over the far northern portions of the Gulf of California through late Sunday. The winds will diminish as the trough weakens. Elsewhere gentle to moderate southerly flow will prevail. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal NE-E winds are forecast each night across the Gulf of Papagayo through the middle of next week, with seas building to 6 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate southerly winds will prevail elsewhere through the middle of next week. Long period southerly swell with 7 ft wave heights moving into the waters off Guatemala and El Salvador will gradually subside through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface low along the tropical wave near 10N103W will move W- NW over the next few days accompanied by gentle cyclonic winds. Otherwise, a NW to SE orientated ridge will extend across the area. Fresh NW to N winds are expected north of 30N and E of 130W through late Sun, with 6-7 ft seas. Moderate NE flow is forecast elsewhere west of 120W with 5-7 ft seas. Long period southerly swell will continue to subside, with seas below 8 ft by Sunday. $$ Christensen