000 AXPZ20 KNHC 012033 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2033 UTC Sat Jul 1 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave along 85W-86W moving off the coast of Nicaragua is moving west at 15 kt, accompanied by scattered thunderstorms over land. A tropical wave analyzed from 06N103W to low pressure near 10N103W 1010 mb to 06N130W, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is evident near the low center. The low is expected to remain fairly weak as it moves west-northwest to near 14N110W through Monday night. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends west from Panama near 08N78W to 11N86W to 10N125W. The intertropical convergence zone reaches from 06N135W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed from 07N to 12N between 95W and 105W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A NW to SE orientated ridge axis just w of the offshore waters will shift eastward tonight. Moderate to locally fresh NW flow will become moderate NW flow by this evening. Long period NW swell with 7-9 ft seas will arrive near 30N120W, continue south to near 28N120W tonight, then subside to 5-7 ft late Sun. Gentle to moderate winds and 3-5 ft seas are expected elsewhere across the open waters north of the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the middle of next week. Gulf of Tehuantepec...Strong northerly nocturnal drainage flow will begin late tonight, with seas building to 7 ft. Expect similar conditions through late next week. Gulf of California...Fresh to locally strong southerly flow is expected north of 30N this evening through Sun evening, with seas building to 5 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal NE-E winds are forecast each night across the Gulf of Papagayo through the middle of next week, with seas building to 6 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate southerly winds will prevail elsewhere through the middle of next week. Long period southerly swell with 7 ft wave heights moving into the waters off Guatelmala and El Salvador will gradually subside through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface low along the tropical wave near 10N103W will move W- NW over the next few days accompanied by gentle cyclonic winds. Otherwise, a NW to SE orientated ridge will extend across the area. Fresh NW to N winds are expected north of 30N and E of 130W through late Sun, with 6-7 ft seas. Moderate NE flow is forecast elsewhere west of 120W with 5-7 ft seas. Long period southerly swell will continue to subside, with seas below 8 ft by Sunday. $$ Christensen