000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011525
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Jul 1 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave along 83W-84W passing through Costa Rica and 
Nicaragua is moving west at 15 kt, accompanied by scattered 
thunderstorms over land.

A tropical wave analyzed from 06N103W to 14N101W is moving west 
at 10 kt. A 1010 mb low center is analyzed along the wave axis 
near 10N102W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is evident 
near the low center. The low is expected to remain fairly weak 
as it moves west-northwest to near 14N110W through Monday night.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends west from a low in NW Colombia near 
09N75W across Panama and Costa Rica to 11N90W to 11N113W to 
09N125W. The ITCZ is from 09N133W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate 
to strong convection is observed from 07N to 11N between 100W 
and 105W.
  
...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A NW to SE orientated ridge axis just w of the offshore waters 
will shift eastward tonight. Moderate to locally fresh NW flow 
will become moderate NW flow by this evening. Long period NW 
swell with 7-9 ft seas will arrive near 30N120W, continue south 
to near 28N120W tonight, then subside to 5-7 ft late Sun. 

Gentle to moderate winds and 3-5 ft seas are expected elsewhere 
across the open waters north of the Gulf of Tehuantepec through 
the middle of next week. 

Gulf of Tehuantepec...Strong northerly nocturnal drainage flow 
will begin late tonight, with seas building to 7 ft. Expect 
similar conditions through late next week.
 
Gulf of California...Fresh to locally strong southerly flow is 
expected north of 30N this evening through Sun evening, with 
seas building to 5 ft.  
  
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo...Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal NE-E 
winds are forecast each night through the middle of next week, 
with seas building to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate southerly winds 
will prevail elsewhere through the middle of next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
  
A surface low along the tropical wave near 10N102W will move W-
NW over the next few days accompanied by gentle cyclonic winds. 
Otherwise, a NW to SE orientated ridge will extend across the 
area. Fresh NW to N winds are expected north of 30N and E of 
130W through late Sun, with 6-7 ft seas. Moderate anticyclonic 
flow is forecast elsewhere west of 120W with 5-7 ft seas. Long 
period southerly swell will continue to subside, with seas below 
8 ft by Sunday.

$$
Mundell