000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301526
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Jun 30 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave analyzed from 06N95W to 14N94W is moving west at 
10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection associated with the 
wave is observed within 180 nm east of the wave axis. A weak 
surface low is evident east of the wave axis near 10N94W, 
expected to move WNW to near 12.5N106W by Sunday.   

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia across Panama 
to 10N98W to 09N107W to 11N115W. The ITCZ continues from 11N115W 
to 11N139W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
observed from 07N to 10N between 83W and 90W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is also observed from 08N to 13N 
between 127W and 133W.
  
...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge axis west of the offshore waters supports gentle to 
moderate NW flow west of the Baja Peninsula, with 4-6 ft seas. 
Long period NW swell with seas to 7-8 ft will reach 30N Saturday 
afternoon and persist through Sunday afternoon. Light to gentle 
winds and 3-5 ft seas, are expected elsewhere north of the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec through mid week. GFS model shows fresh to strong 
northerly drainage flow beginning late Saturday night, with max 
seas building to about 7 ft. Expect similar nocturnal conditions 
to persist through Wednesday night. In the Gulf of California, 
light to moderate southerly winds across the entire gulf will 
become fresh to locally strong north of 30N Saturday evening 
through Sunday evening, with seas building to 5 ft.  
  
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo...Fresh to locally strong ENE nocturnal winds 
are expected each night through the middle of next week, with 
max seas building to 6-7 ft.
  
Gentle to moderate southerly winds forecast elsewhere through 
the middle of next week. Long period cross-equatorial southerly 
swell across the area south of 10N will subside from north to 
south through Saturday, with seas of 4-6 ft forecast across the 
entire area by Sunday. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
  
The remnants of Dora centered near 21N118W will continue to 
weaken into a trough, and are expected to become diffuse by 
Saturday night. The surface low near 10N94W will move westward 
through the middle of next week, accompanied by light cyclonic 
winds. Otherwise, a NW-SE orientated ridge will extend across 
the area. Strong northerly winds west of California will induce 
northerly swell to 7-9 ft north of 26N between 120W and 128W 
tonight through Sunday, then diminish as the winds north of the 
area weaken. Long period southerly swell in southern waters will 
subside from north to south through Saturday, with seas below 8 
ft by Saturday night.

$$
Mundell