000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280241 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 119 UTC Wed Jun 28 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0215 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Dora is centered near 19.7N 112.3W at 28/0300 UTC moving west-northwest or 285 degrees at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained winds have diminished to 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. The convection associated with Dora continues to decrease, with the center now exposed to the west of a small area of deep convection. Satellite imagery shows an area of scattered to numerous moderate convection between 60nm and 120 nm of center, in the eastern semicircle. Dora should continue to rapidly weaken as it moves over colder sea surface temperatures, and the system is expected to become a remnant low in about 24 hours. Swells generated by Dora will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico through early Wednesday, and also affect portions of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula over the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 92W north of 09N. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted over parts of the Mexican States of Chiapas and Oaxaca, likely in association with this wave. Similar convection is also noted near the southern end of the wave axis, forecast to move westward over the eastern Pacific Ocean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W across Panama and Costa Rica to 10N90W to 08N96W to 11N106W to 09N116W to 10N125W to 09N132W. The ITCZ axis continues from 09N132W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 11N between 90W and 95W, and from 08N to 10N between 111W AND 122W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Outside of the influence of Dora, gentle to moderate winds prevail in the waters west of Baja California. Light to gentle winds are off the coast of SW Mexico and across the Gulf of California. Seas are 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California and 4-6 ft elsewhere. Little change is expected during the next several days. Winds are forecast to briefly increase to 20 kt over the northern Gulf of California between 1800 and 0600 UTC on Wednesday and Thursday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate SW to W winds are expected across most of the region, except for southerly winds between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Long period SW swell propagating into the region will build seas of 8-9 ft tonight and Wednesday, with the exception of the lee of the Galapagos Islands. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure located north of area extends a ridge across the waters north of the convergence zone and west of 120W. The most recent scatterometer data indicate moderate to locally fresh NE winds from 10N to 20N west of 130W. Seas are generally 5-7 ft within these winds. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere N of 10N west of 120W. Winds and seas are expected to remain below advisory criteria through the remainder of the week, with the exception of the south waters. Cross equatorial long period SW swell will continue to propagate across the south waters, mainly E of 120W, reaching the area S of a line from 07N82W to 08N95W to 06N110W to 00N120W, except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands, by late Wednesday. Expect building seas of 8-10 ft with this swell event, but the highest seas will remain south of the Equator. $$ GR