000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260253 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 052 UTC Mon Jun 26 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0215 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Dora is centered near 16.4N 104.3W at 26/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest or 300 degrees at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed has increased to 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted within 90 nm N and 60 nm S semicircles of Dora. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 13N to 18N between 101W and 106W. Dora is forecast to continue on a west-northwest track while intensifying, reaching hurricane strength early Monday before starting a weakening trend on Tuesday as the system moves over cooler waters and into a more stable environment. Swells generated by Dora are affecting portions of the coast of southwest Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northwestward and begin affecting portions of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula on Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Dora is expected to produce rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches along coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through Monday. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details on the track and intensity of Dora, and the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on marine impacts of Dora. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N90W to 12N95W, then resumes west of Dora at 13N105W to 09N120W to 08N130W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 81W and 88W, from 09N to 11N between 101W and 111W, and from 06N to 09N between 128W and 138W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features for more information on Tropical Storm Dora. Outside of the influence of Dora, a ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters. Moderate to fresh winds prevail west of the Baja California, gentle to moderate winds across the Gulf of California, and light to gentle winds off the coast of southwest Mexico. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range off the coast of the Baja California Peninsula, 1-2 ft over the Gulf of California, and 5-6 ft elsewhere. These conditions will prevail into the early part of the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate southwest to west winds are expected across most of the region during the forecast period, with the exception of mainly south winds between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Additional pulses of long period southwest swell will continue to impact the region, but seas will remain generally below 6 ft through Monday. Cross equatorial long period southerly swell is expected to reach the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands Monday night into Tuesday, building seas up to 10 ft late on Tuesday, except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1018 mb is centered near 31N125W, while a surface trough extends from a 1013 mb low pressure, located N of the area near 36N132W to 27N136W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are noted west of the trough. Light and variable winds prevail elsewhere N of 20N W of 125W, with gentle to moderate winds prevailing elsewhere, with the exception of an area of moderate to fresh trades from 10N to 16N W of 130W. Seas in the 8 to 10 ft range are noted per altimeter data across the north waters while an area of seas of 8 ft is seen in association with the trade winds combined with southerly swell. These seas are forecast to subside below 8 ft in about 24 hours. $$ GR