000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251553
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1350 UTC Sun Jun 25 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Dora was centered near 15.0N 101.8W at 25/1500 
UTC, moving west-northwest or 295 degrees at 10 kt. Estimated 
minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind 
speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate and 
scattered strong convection was noted within 60 nm northeast and
90 nm southwest semicircles of Dora. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection was noted elsewhere from 11N to 17N
between 99W and 105W. Dora is forecast to continue on a west- 
northwest track while intensifying, reaching hurricane strength 
Monday before starting a weakening trend as the system moves 
over cooler waters and into a more stable environment. Heavy 
rainfall associated to this system will affect portions of 
southwest Mexico, especially along the coastal sections of the 
Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, and Michoacan through Monday.
See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO Headers 
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details on the track and intensity
of Dora, and the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO 
Headers MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on marine impacts 
of Dora.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 12N94W, it then 
resumes at 10N107W to 07N131W. The ITCZ extends from 07N131W to 
beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
noted within 60 nm north of the monsoon trough between 88W and 
90W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm south 
of the monsoon trough between 110W and 113W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted within 60 nm of the monsoon trough between 
126W and 129W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See Special Features for more information on Tropical Storm Dora.

Outside of the influence of Dora, high pressure of 1017 mb 
centered near 25N126W extends a ridge across the offshore 
forecast waters. Moderate to fresh winds prevail west of the Baja
California, gentle to moderate winds across the Gulf of 
California, and light to gentle winds off the coast of southwest 
Mexico. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range off the coast of the Baja 
California Peninsula, 1-2 ft over the Gulf of California, and 5-6
ft elsewhere. These conditions will prevail into the early part 
of the week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gentle to moderate southwest to west winds are expected across 
most of the region during the forecast period, with the exception
of mainly south winds between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands.
Additional pulses of long period southwest swell will continue 
to impact the region, but seas will remain generally below 6 ft 
through Monday. Cross equatorial long period southerly swell is
expected to reach the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos 
Islands Monday night into Tuesday, building seas up to 9 ft late 
on Tuesday, except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1017 mb is centered near 25N126W, while a 
surface trough extends over the northwest waters. Moderate to 
fresh northerly winds are noted west of the trough. Light and 
variable winds prevail elsewhere N of 20N W of 130W, with gentle 
to moderate winds prevailing elsewhere. Seas in the 8 to 10 ft 
range prevailing over the northwest waters will subside, and 
fall below 8 ft Monday. 

$$
AL