000 AXPZ20 KNHC 250913 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 616 UTC Sun Jun 25 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Dora was centered near 14.7N 100.9W at 25/0900 UTC, moving west-northwest or 300 degrees at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection was noted within 60 nm northeast and 90 nm southwest semicircles of Dora. The system is forecast to continue on a west- northwest track while intensifying, reaching hurricane strength Monday afternoon before starting a weakening trend as the system moves over cooler waters. Heavy rainfall associated to this system will affect portions of southwest Mexico, especially along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, and Michoacan through Monday. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details on the track and intensity of Dora, and the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on marine impacts of Dora. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 12N96W, it then resumes at 10N102W to 09N132W. The ITCZ extends from 09N132W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm north of the monsoon trough between 87W and 90W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm south of the monsoon trough between 108W and 112W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm south of the monsoon trough between 122W and 126W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features for more information on Tropical Storm Dora. Outside of the influence of Dora, high pressure of 1017 mb centered near 28N126W extends a ridge across the offshore forecast waters. Moderate to fresh winds prevail west of the Baja California, gentle to moderate winds across the Gulf of California, and light to gentle winds off the coast of southwest Mexico. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range off the coast of the Baja California Peninsula, 1-2 ft over the Gulf of California, and 5-6 ft elsewhere. These conditions will prevail into the early part of the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate southwest to west winds are expected across most of the region during the forecast period, with the exception of mainly south winds between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Additional pulses of long period southwest swell will continue to impact the region, but seas will remain generally below 6 ft through Monday. Cross equatorial long period southerly swell is expected to reach the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands Monday night into Tuesday, building seas up to 9 ft late on Tuesday, except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1017 mb is centered near 28N126W, while surface trough extends over the northwest waters. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are noted west of the trough. Light and variable winds prevail elsewhere N of 20N W of 130W, with gentle to moderate winds prevailing elsewhere. Seas in the 8 to 11 ft range prevailing over the northwest waters will start to subside today, and fall below 8 ft Monday night. $$ AL