000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240226
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
032 UTC Sat Jun 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Satellite images indicate that the low pressure system centered
near 12.5N96.5W or a couple of hundred miles south of Puerto 
Angel, Mexico, is developing a well-defined center of circulation,
and the associated shower and thunderstorm activity continues to
show signs of organization. Scattered to numerous moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 14N between 95W 
and 98W. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional 
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during
the next day or two while the low moves west- northwestward at 
about 10 kt parallel to the coast of Mexico. Heavy rains are 
possible in the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero during the 
next couple of days, and interests along the southwestern coast 
of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Currently, 
the forecast shows winds of 20-30 kt and seas of 8-12 ft in 
association with this system by late Sunday. The latest Tropical
Weather Outlook gives this low a high chance of formation through
48 hours.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from a 1008 mb low presssure located 
near 12.5N96.5W to 10N100W to 09N115W to 09N125W. The ITCZ axis 
continues from 09N125W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is from 07N to 11N between 96W and 
101W, and from 07N to 10N between 101W and 105W. Scattered 
moderate convection is within 90 nm south of the trough between 
115W and 121W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak 1014 mb high pressure is centered near 27N122W and extends
a ridge across the offshore forecast waters. Under the influence
of this system, latest scatterometer data indicate mainly light 
and variable winds west of Baja California. Moderate to locally 
fresh NW winds are expected off the Baja California Peninsula 
tonight into Saturday as the high pressure moves toward the SW 
and slightly strengthens. Moderate to fresh NW winds are noted 
near Cabo Corrientes, likely due to the pressure gradient between
a ridge to the west and low pressures across inland Mexico.

Mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected across the
Gulf of California during the upcoming weekend with seas generally
under 4 ft. 

See Special Features for more information on a developing low 
pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of Puerto Angel,
Mexico.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gentle to moderate southwest to west winds are expected across 
most of the region during the forecast period, with the exception
of mainly S winds between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. 
Additional pulses of long period southwest swell will continue 
to impact the region, but seas will remain generally below 6 ft 
during the upcoming weekend. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface trough extends from a 1010 mb low pres located north 
of area near 33N129W to 28N136W. Moderate to fresh northerly  
winds were noted per scatterometer data between the trough and 
high pressure farther west. Otherwise, weak high pressure 
dominates the remainder of the area north of the convergence 
zone, producing mainly light and variable winds. An altimeter 
pass shows seas of 8 to 12 ft, in northerly swell, affecting the 
waters N of 21N W of 120W. Seas will gradually subside through 
the upcoming weekend.

$$
GR