000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161601
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Jun 16 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough axis extends from 11N86W to 12N92W to 14N98W 
to 09N110W to 08N120W. The ITCZ extends from 08N120W to 06N131W 
to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 03N E of 87W, 
from 06N to 16N between 88W and 113W and from 04N to 07N W of 
132W.

Broad low pressure is forecast to continue across and off the 
coast of Central America for a couple of days as well as in 
Eastern Mexico. Locally heavy rainfall accumulations are 
possible as large clusters of tstms develop.
  
...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A NW to SE orientated ridge will prevail across the EPAC waters 
well to the SW of the offshore zones through Tue while a NW to 
SE orientated trough will extend across the Baja Peninsula and 
Gulf of California. A gentle to moderate NW breeze is forecast 
across the offshore waters W of 111W through Monday night. 
Strong northerly drainage winds are expected in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec Mon night into Wed morning. Light and variable winds 
are expected elsewhere across the open Pacific offshores during 
the Tehuantepec event. Large SW swell is forecast across the 
waters S of 13N beginning early Sun into Mon, and then subsiding 
to less than 8 ft on Mon night. Light and variable winds are 
forecast across the Gulf of California through the period. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Light and variable winds are forecast to the N of 12N this 
morning. Moderate southerly flow observed to the S of 10N will 
spread N with a moderate SW to W breeze expected across the 
entire forecast area by tonight, with little change through Tue 
night. Long period SW swell will build seas to 9 ft over the 
upcoming weekend, and continue through Tue evening when it will 
subside to less than 8 ft. Light to moderate S to SE wind flow 
is forecast S of the Galapagos Islands through Monday night with 
SW swell generating seas up to 9 ft extending to 01N and all the 
way to Ecuador coastal waters.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
  
A 1027 mb surface high will meander near 31N137W today with a 
ridge extending SE to near 14N115W. The high will shift N of 32N 
tonight, but leave a ridge extending SSE across the discussion 
waters to the W of 120W. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow is 
forecast across the discussion area through Tue, with seas of 7 
to 9 ft to the NE of the ridge between about 122W and 125W.

An area of 6 to 8 ft seas, primarily due to SW swell, is a 
observed from 08N to 10N between 102W and 104W. Reinforcing 
cross-equatorial SW swell will overtake this area through the 
upcoming weekend, then will subside by Wednesday.

$$
Ramos