000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160951 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 924 UTC Fri Jun 16 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 13N87W to 14N100W to low pressure near 11.5N105W to 08N123W. The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 05N130W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 120 nm SW of Central America between 81W and 87W, from 07N to 13N between 89W and 97W, from 08N to 12N between 99W and 111W, and also from 05N to 07N between 121W and 126W. Broad low pressure is forecast to continue for a couple of days across most of Central America and Eastern Mexico. Locally heavy rainfall accumulations are possible as large clusters of tstms develop. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A NW to SE orientated ridge will meander across the EPAC waters well to the SW of the offshore zones through Tue night, while a NW to SE orientated trough will extend across the Baja Peninsula mainly during the late afternoons in the early evening hours. A gentle to moderate NW breeze is forecast across the offshore waters W of 111W through early Sun, then the NW flow will increase to a moderate to locally fresh breeze on Sun night, and continue through Tue night. Strong northerly drainage winds are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Mon night into Tue. Light and variable winds are expected elsewhere across the open Pacific offshore waters through early Sat, when a moderate W breeze will develop, and then continue through Tue night. Large SW swell is forecast across the waters S of 12N beginning early Sun into Mon, and then subsiding to less than 8 ft on Mon night. Light and variable winds are forecast across the Gulf of California through the period. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light and variable winds are forecast to the N of 10N for the rest of tonight, then to the N of 12N later this morning. Moderate southerly flow currently observed to the S of 10N, will spread N with a moderate SW to W breeze expected across the entire forecast area by tonight, with little change through Tue night. Long period SW swell will build seas to 9 ft over the upcoming weekend, and continue through Mon, then subside to less than 8 ft by early Tue. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1027 mb surface high will meander near 31N137W through the day with a ridge extending SE to near 14N116W. The high will shift N of 32N tonight, but leave a ridge extending SSE across the discussion waters to the W of 125W. Moderate to fresh anticyclonicflow is forecast across the discussion area through Tue, with seas of 7 to 9 ft to the NE of the ridge between about 120W and 127W. An area of 6 to 8 ft seas, primarily due to SW swell, is a observed from 07N to 11N between 100W and 111W. Reinforcing cross-equatorial SW swell will overtake this area through the upcoming weekend, then will subside early next week. $$ Lewitsky