000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160217 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Jun 16 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0215 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends NW from 10N86W to 13N103W, then turns SW to 06N126W where scatterometer winds indicate that the ITCZ forms, and then extends W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 120 nm either side of a line from 05N78W to 10N95W to 10N110W to 06N126W. Broad low pressure is forecast to continue for a couple of days across most of Central America and Eastern Mexico. Locally heavy rainfall accumulations are possible as large clusters of tstms develop. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A nw to se orientated ridge will meander across the EPAC waters well to the SW of the offshore zones through Tue night, while a NW to SE orientated trough will extend across the Baja Peninsula mainly during the late afternoons in the early evening hours. A gentle to moderate NW breeze is forecast across the offshore waters W of 111W through early Sun, then the NW flow will increase to a moderate to locally fresh breeze on Sun night, and continue through Tue night. Strong northerly drainage winds are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Mon night into Tue. Light and variable winds are expected elsewhere across the open Pacific offshore waters through early Sat, when a moderate W breeze will develop, and then continue through Tue night. Large SW swell is forecast across the waters s of 12N beginning early Sun into Mon, and then subsiding to less than 8 ft on Mon night. Light and variable winds are forecast across the Gulf of California through the period. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light and variable winds are forecast to the N of 10N late tonight and to the N of 12N early Fri. Moderate southerly flow currently observed to the S of 10N, will spread N with a moderate SW to W breeze expected across the entire forecast area by late Fri, with little change through Tue night. Long period SW swell will build seas to 9 ft over the upcoming weekend, and continue through Mon, then subside to less than 8 ft by early Tue. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1025 mb surface high will meander near 31N136W through Fri with a ridge extending SE to near 10N115W. The high should shift N of 32N on Fri night, but leave a ridge extending SSE across the discussion waters to the W of 125W. Moderate to fresh anticylonic flow is forecast across the discussion area through Tue, with seas of 7 to 9 ft to the NE of the ridge between about 120W and 127W. An area of 6 to 8 ft seas, primarily due to SW swell, is a observed from 07N to 08N between 103W and 109W. The seas will subside below 8 ft early Fri as a batch of cross equatorial southwesterly swell, in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas, spreads N across the equator between 90W and 110W on Fri evening. Expect 7 to 9 ft seas across the tropics to the E of 120W on Sat through Mon before beginning to subside on Mon night into Tue. $$ Nelson