000 AXPZ20 KNHC 151528 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1354 UTC Thu Jun 15 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near the Gulf of Fonseca at 13N88W to 15N100W to 07N120W to 06N130W. The intertropical convergence zone extends from 06N130W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm north of the monsoon trough, along the coast from northwest Nicaragua to the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Convergent southwest flow into the monsoon trough is supporting scattered moderate convection from 05N to 10N between 85W to 115W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge axis extends across the EPAC waters W of the offshore zones from a 1026 mb high centered near 32N1389W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Earlier altimeter data indicated wave height of 8 to 9 ft were penetrating into the the region from farther north of the coast of California, where winds are increasing to gale force. This northerly swell are reaching the waters off Baja California Norte beyond 200 nm and north of 27N, near Guadalupe Island. This area of swell will gradually decay and recede northward through early Saturday. Elsewhere moderate to occasional fresh NW winds are currently across the offshore waters to the N of 20N but are forecast to diminish slightly into a gentle to moderate W-NW breeze by Friday and persist with little change through Monday night. Gulf of California: Light and variable winds forecast through the period. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Light and variable winds expected through the period. Global model guidance is suggesting strong to near gale force northerly drainage winds Monday night into early Tuesday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle SW to W flow and 4 to 6 ft seas are forecast across the offshore waters to the N of 07N through late tonight. Thereafter...seas are expected to build into a range of 5 to 7 ft as SW flow increases to moderate breezes through Saturday night. By Saturday night into Sunday...long period SW swell will begin impacting the region building seas 7 to 9 ft. Moderate to locally fresh southerly flow with 4 to 6 ft seas... currently observed to the S of 07N...will persist through Friday. By Friday night into Saturday...the previously mentioned long period SW swell will begin impacting the region building seas 7 to 9 ft expected through Sun. The increased southwest winds over the next several days across the waters off Central America will be in response to the development of broad low pressure over Central America Friday through Sunday. While marine impacts in the form of winds and seas will be minimal, heavy rainfall in possible over much of Central America into southern Mexico over the next several days, and localized flooding is possible. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge axis extends from a 1026 mb high centered near 32N1389W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow is forecast across the area through Monday night with seas of 7 to 8 ft to the N of 27N between about 120W and 125W. An area of 6 to 8 ft seas, primarily due to SW swell, is a observed from 06N to 08N between 103W and 108W. The seas will subside below 8 ft on Friday as a batch of cross equatorial southwesterly swell, in the form of 7 to 10 ft seas, spreads N across the equator between 92W and 110W on Friday evening. Expect 7 to 9 ft seas across the tropics to the between 110W and 120w Saturday through Monday before beginning to subside on Monday night. $$ Christensen