000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150909
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0909 UTC Thu Jun 15 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0715 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
The Monsoon Trough extends from 09N84W to 13N95W then from 
12N104W to 07N116W to 07N128W. The ITCZ axis extends from 
07N128W to 08N138W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to
10N between 87W and 95W...from 10N to 16N between 93W and 
96W...and from 04N to 09N between 96W and 108W. Scattered 
moderate and isolated strong convection is from 12N to 15N 
between 87W and 91W...and from 06N to 09N betweenm 109W and 
115W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A ridge axis extends across the EPAC waters W of the offshore 
zones from a 1026 mb high centered near 31N139W to 17N113W. 
Moderate to occasional fresh NW winds are currently across the 
offshore waters to the N of 20N but are forecast to diminish 
slightly into a gentle to moderate W-NW breeze by Friday and 
persist with little change through Monday night. Large SW swell 
will reach the southern zones generally S of 15N Saturday night 
into Sunday. This SW swell will begin to subside on late Monday 
into Monday night.

Gulf of California: Light and variable winds forecast through
the period. 
  
Gulf of Tehuantepec: Light and variable winds expected through
the period. Global model guidance is suggesting strong to near 
gale force northerly drainage winds Monday night into early 
Tuesday.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Light to gentle SW to W flow and 4 to 6 ft seas are forecast 
across the offshore waters to the N of 07N through late 
Thursday. Thereafter...seas are expected to build into a range of
5 to 7 ft as SW flow increases into a moderate breeze through 
Saturday night. By Saturday night into Sunday...long period SW 
swell will begin impacting the region building seas 7 to 9 ft. 
Moderate to locally fresh southerly flow with 4 to 6 ft seas... 
currently observed to the S of 07N...will persist through Friday.
By Friday night into Saturday...the previously mentioned long 
period SW swell will begin impacting the region building seas 7 
to 9 ft expected through Sun.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A ridge axis extends from 31N139W SE to near 17N113W. A surface 
high centered near 31N139W will remain nearly stationary through
Monday. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow is forecast across 
the area through Monday night with seas of 7 to 9 ft to the N of
the ridge between about 120W and 128W.

An area of 6 to 8 ft seas, primarily due to SW swell, is a 
observed from 06N to 08N between 102W and 109W. The seas will 
subside below 8 ft on Friday as a batch of cross equatorial 
southwesterly swell, in the form of 7 to 10 ft seas, spreads N 
across the Equator between 92W and 110W on Friday evening. 
Expect 7 to 9 ft seas across the tropics to the E of 120W on
Saturday through Monday before beginning to subside on Monday 
night.

$$
HUFFMAN