000 AXPZ20 KNHC 142146 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Jun 14 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A broad area of low pressure is analyzed as a 1010 mb surface low over the far SW Caribbean at 10N82W. The monsoon trough extends w from this low to the Coast of Costa Rica at 10N85W, then turns NW through 12N94W to 06N121W to 07N126W where scatterometer winds indicate that the ITCZ forms, and NW through an embedded trough at 139W. Isolated moderate and strong convection is observed across the offshore waters within 180 nm either side of a line from 04N78W to 14N96W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed over and mostly to the s of the monsoon trough within 150 nm either side of a line from 09N98W to 04N120W, and within 75 nm of 09N139W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A nw to se orientated ridge extends across the EPAC waters just w of the offshore zones, while a heat trough extends from NW to Se across the Baja Peninsula. Moderate to fresh NW winds currently across the offshore waters to the N of 20N will diminish to a gentle to moderate NW breeze late tonight, with little change then expected through Mon night, except increasing to a fresh breeze across the coastal waters along the Central Baja Peninsula during the evenings. Large SW swell will reach the southern zones s of 14N on Sun night. Gulf of California: Light and variable winds forecast through the period. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Light northerly drainage flow expected through Mon morning with moderate N flow forecast on Mon night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light and variable winds to gentle are forecast to the N of 09N tonight, to the N of 10N on Thu, and to the N of 12N early Fri. Moderate southerly flow currently observed to the S of 09N, will spread N with a moderate SW to W breeze across the entire forecast area by late Fri with little change through Mon night. Long period SW swell will build seas to 9 ft over the upcoming weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge axis extends from 32N136W SE to near 08N125W. A surface high will shift S on Thu near 32N137W, where it will meander through Fri night, with a ridge extending SE to near 10N120W. Moderate to fresh anticylonic flow is forecast across the area through Mon night, with seas of 7 to 9 ft N of the ridge between 120W and 128W. A surface trough extending from 06N139W to 14N137W will drift W of the area late Thu, with fresh NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas W of the trough till then. Area area of 6 to 8 ft seas primarily due to SW swell is observed from 05N to 09N between 100W and 112W. The seas will subside below 8 ft on Fri as a batch of cross equatorial SW swell, in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas, spreads across the equator between 95W and 110W on Fri evening. Expect 7 to 9 ft seas across the tropics to the E of 120W on Sat through Mon. $$ Nelson