000 AXPZ20 KNHC 141540 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1540 UTC Wed Jun 14 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough axis extends from 10N83W to 13N93W to 09N110W to 05N136W. The ITCZ axis begins near 05N139W and extends beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection are north of 08N east of 93W, from 04N to 11N between 93W and 106W, and from 04N to 09N between 111W and 119W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between high pressure over the northeast Pacific and lower pressures over northwestern Mexico support mainly moderate northwest winds west of Baja California, with seas of 6 to 8 ft, highest along 30N. Mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail over the Gulf of California and elsewhere over the Mexico offshore waters. Seas of 1 to 3 ft are over the Gulf of California, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. Very little change in the overall pattern is expected over the next two days. Pressures will rise slightly over northwest Mexico while the high shifts slightly farther from the region over the upcoming weekend into early next week which will help further decrease winds west of Baja California. This will also help to diminish wave heights over the area. Tropical wave energy and a broad area of lower pressure are expected to move northwest over central America this weekend, and then southeastern Mexico and the offshore waters of this portion of Mexico late this weekend into early next week, with heavy rainfall possible. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle SW to W flow and 3 to 5 ft seas are forecast across the offshore waters to the N of 10N through Thursday, then north of 12N by early Fri. Moderate to locally fresh southerly flow with 4 to 6 ft seas, to the S of 10N, will spread N and extend across the entire forecast area by late Fri. Long period SW swell will reach the southern waters early Saturday, then as far north as 14N by Sunday afternoon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge axis extends from 32N135W SE to near 15N112W, with high pressure dominating the area N of 15N. Mainly moderate northeast winds cover the east Pacific discussion waters north of the ITCZ and Monsoon Trough axis with seas of 5 to 7 ft. The exception is north of 27N and east of 127W, where moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft prevail. This pattern will hold in place for the next several days, except the area of fresh winds and seas of 8 to 9 ft will gradually shift westward as the high pressure drifts northwestward. A surface trough that extends from 11N137W to 03N138W is supporting isolated moderate convection within 120 nm of the trough axis, and locally fresh winds with combined wind driven waves and SE swell supporting seas to 8 ft. Otherwise, mainly gentle to moderate winds are south of the ITCZ axis and moderate to locally fresh south of the monsoon trough, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. By Friday night, cross equatorial southwest swell greater than 8 ft is forecast to spread north of the equator, with 8 to 9 ft seas reaching as far north as 14N, east of 120W by Sunday. $$ Latto