000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140228 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Jun 14 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0215 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough is analyzed to the N of 07N along 83W and is part of a broad area of low pressure extending across most of Central America and the EPAC generally to the E of 95W. Expect locally heavy rains across Central America for the next few days. The monsoon trough extends NW from 07N83W through an embedded 1011 mb low pressure at 07N87W to 11N96W to 11N103W to 07N124W where scatterometer winds indicate that the ITCZ forms, and continues W-NW through an embedded trough at 137W, then turns SW to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 60 nm either side of a line from 05N83W to 10N84W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 150 nm either side of a line from 04N82W to 09N98W to 07N115w. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed along the embedded trough, within 120 nm either side of line from 14N136.5W to 07N137W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed to the N of the monsoon trough within 75 nm of 15N93W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A nw to se orientated ridge extends across the EPAC waters just w of the offshore zones, with the associated pressure gradient currently supporting fresh NW winds across the offshore waters N of 25N to the W of the Baja California Peninsula. These winds are expected to diminish to a moderate NW breeze late tonight, with gentle to moderate NW flow then expected W of the entire Baja Peninsula through Sun night, except increasing to a fresh breeze across the coastal waters along the Central Baja Peninsula during the evenings. Gulf of California: Moderate NW flow forecast across the central waters of the Gulf of California through Wed. Light and variable winds forecast elsewhere. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Light northerly drainage flow expected through Sat morning with moderate N flow forecast on Sat and Sun nights. Mexican offshore waters elsewhere S of 23N: Light to gentle SW to W flow, and 3 to 5 seas forecast through Sat, with seas then forecast to build to 5 to 8 ft in long period SW swell across the waters to the S of 14N on Sat night and Sun. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle SW to W flow, and 3 to 5 ft seas, are forecast across the offshore waters to the N of 07N through Wed, to the N of 10N on Thu, and to the N of 12N early Fri. Moderate to locally fresh southerly flow with 4 to 6 ft seas, currently observed to the S of 07N, will spread N and extend across the entire forecast area by late Fri. Long period SW swell will build seas to 8 ft to the N of 07N on Sat and Sun. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge axis extends from 32N138W SE to near 10N120W. A surface high will shift into the area near 32N137W on Thu, where it will meander through Fri, with a ridge extending SE to near 10N120W. Moderate to fresh anticylonic flow is forecast across the area through early Fri when fresh to strong NW to N winds will spread S into the waters to the N of 30N E of 125W, and continue through early Sat with seas building to 9 ft. Cross equatorial SW swell in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas, will spread N of the equator between 85W and 115W on Fri evening. Expect 7 to 9 ft seas across the tropics to the E of 120W on Sat and Sun. $$ Nelson