000 AXPZ20 KNHC 132158 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Jun 13 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A tropical wave that extended N to S from 14N82W to 05N83W has merged into a broad area of low pressure extending across most of Central America and the EPAC to the E of 95W. Expect locally heavy rains across Central America for the next few days. The monsoon trough extends NW from 06N83W through an embedded 1011 mb low pressure to 12N98W, then turns SW to 07N120W, then W to 07N125W where scatterometer winds indicate that the ITCZ forms, and continues WNW through an embedded trough at 96W, then turns SW to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 150 nm either side of a line from 05N83W to 13N101W. Scattered moderate convection is noted further S within 150 nm either side of a line from 05N96W to 08N108W to 07N119W to 08N131W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed along the embedded trough, within 150 nm either side of line from 12N132W to 09N138W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed to the N of the monsoon trough within 75 nm of 15.5N94.5W and within 90 nm of 16.5N102.5W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A nw to se orientated ridge extends across the EPAC waters just w of the offshore zones, with the associated pressure gradient currently supporting fresh NW winds across the open waters N of 25N W of the Baja California Peninsula. These winds are expected to diminish to a moderate NW breeze tonight, with gentle to moderate NW flow then expected W of entire Baja Peninsula through Sun night, except briefly increasing to a fresh breeze across the coastal waters along the central Baja Peninsula during the evenings. Gulf of California: Moderate NW flow forecast across the central waters of the Gulf of California through Wed. Light and variable forecast elsewhere. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Light northerly drainage flow expected through Sat morning with moderate n flow on Sat and Sun nights. Mexican offshore waters elsewhere S of 23N: Light to gentle S to W flow, and 3 to 5 seas forecast through Sat, with seas then building to 5 to 8 ft in long period SW swell to the S of 14N on Sat night and Sun. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle SW to W flow, and 3 to 5 ft seas, is forecast across the offshore waters to the N of 07N through Wed, to the N of 10N on Thu, and to the N of 12N early Fri. Moderate to locally fresh southerly flow, and 4 to 6 ft seas, currently to the S of 07N, will spread N and extend across the entire forecast area by late Fri. Long period SW swell will build seas to 8 ft to the N of 07N on Sat and Sun. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge axis extends from 32N138W SE to near 10N120W. A surface high will shift into the area near 32N137W on Thu, where it will meander through Fri, with a ridge extending SE to 10N120W. Moderate to fresh anticylonic flow is forecast across the area through early Fri when fresh to strong NW to N winds will spread S into the waters to the N of 30N E of 125W, and continue through early Sat with seas building to 9 ft. On Fri evening cross equatorial SW swell in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas, will spread N of the equator between 85W and 115W. Expect 7 to 9 ft seas across the tropics to the E of 120W on Sat and Sun. $$ Nelson