000 AXPZ20 KNHC 131511 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1505 UTC Tue Jun 13 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Calvin made landfall earlier this morning near Salina Cruz Mexico. The remnants of the depression at 1500 UTC were located near 16.5N 96.5W and are producing very heavy rainfall with numerous moderate to strong convection north of 13N between 98W and 103W, and scattered moderate convection within 120 nm of the remnant low center. Over the past couple of days 3 to 4 inches of rainfall have been reported near Oaxaca and likely much higher amounts have occurred closer to the coast and over high terrain. Although this system is dissipating, the remnants will still draw moisture and heavy rainfall over portions of southeastern Mexico the next few days, with the potential for dangerous flooding. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough axis extends from a 1008 mb low near 11N83W to 11N100W to 07N124W. The ITCZ axis begins near 07N124W and extends to 09N134W, then resumes west of a surface trough near 08N138W to beyond 07N140W. The surface trough extends from 13N135W to 07N136W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are from 04N to 13N between 81W and 100W, and from 07N to 13N between 130W and 139W. Isolated moderate convection is elsewhere within 90 nm of the Monsoon Trough and ITCZ axis. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between high pressure over the northeast Pacific and lower pressures over northwestern Mexico support moderate to fresh northwest winds west of Baja California, with seas of 6 to 8 ft, highest along 30N. Mainly moderate winds prevail over the Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere over the Mexico offshore waters with seas of 4 to 6 ft. The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Calvin are producing heavy rainfall over portions of southern Mexico. Please see the special features section for more details. Very little change in the overall pattern is expected over the next few days. Pressures will rise slightly over northwest Mexico over the upcoming weekend which will help decrease winds west of Baja California. Additional wave energy and a broad area of lower pressure are expected to move northwest over central America this weekend, and then southeastern Mexico and the offshore waters of this portion of Mexico late this weekend into early next week, with another round of heavy rainfall possible. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate westerly winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are expected N of 07N through tonight. Thereafter...winds are expected to increase into moderate to occasional fresh levels and back slightly as W to SW monsoonal flow develops. Seas are expected to build to a 6 to 8 ft range. Moderate SW to W winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are forecast to the S of 07N through Saturday. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge axis extends from 32N134W SE to near 19N111W, with high pressure dominating the area N of 15N. Mainly moderate northeast winds cover the east Pacific discussion waters north of the ITCZ and Monsoon Trough axis with seas of 5 to 7 ft. The only exception is north of 25N and east of 127W, where moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft prevail. This pattern will hold in place for the next several days. Gentle to moderate winds are south of the ITCZ axis and moderate to locally fresh south of the monsoon trough, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. By Friday night, cross equatorial southwest swell greater than 8 ft is forecast to spread north of the equator, with 8 to 9 ft seas reaching as far north as 14N, east of 120W by Sunday. $$ Latto