000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130900 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 724 UTC Tue Jun 13 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0645 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Calvin is centered near 16.3N 96.3W at 13/0900 UTC or about 40 nm NNE of Puerto Angel Mexico moving WNW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. The main impact with this system will be heavy rainfall expected across portions of southern Mexico and Guatemala during the next 24 hours. These rains may lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. See the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC and the full Forecast/ Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 06N83W to 15N84W moving W at 10 kt. The wave is associated with a 700 mb low centered near 07N81W while remaining embedded within the Monsoon Trough as it moves across interior portions of Costa Rica and Nicaragua. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 04N to 13N between 85W and 89W ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough axis extends from 09N79W to 11N93W to 08N110W to 06N125W. The ITCZ axis extends from 06N125W to 08N135W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 04N to 13N between 85W and 89W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 13N between 130W and 137W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Outside of Tropical Depression Calvin...fresh to locally strong NW winds with seas reaching to 9 ft are present offshore of the coast of Baja California Norte. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere across the open waters off the coast of Mexico. The fresh to locally strong NW winds are expected to diminish by Tuesday night into moderate to occasional fresh levels through Thursday night...and remain gentle to moderate through Friday and into the weekend. NW swell propagating through the northern waters currently will gradually subside through Wednesday...with seas of 5 to 7 ft expected thereafter the remainder of the week. Looking ahead toward the middle of the week and into next weekend...there is the potential for a significant heavy rain event across portions of Central America and southern Mexico. A large cyclonic gyre is forecast to begin to develop around Wednesday and persist through the end of the week. Global model guidance indicates it will move slowly across the northern portion of Central America and southern Mexico. Abundant tropical moisture will be advected across Central America and southern Mexico with the potential for heavy rainfall producing life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Will continue to monitor this evolving weather pattern during the next couple days and provide updates. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate westerly winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are expected N of 07N through Wednesday night. Thereafter...winds are expected to increase into moderate to occasional fresh levels and back slightly as W-SW monsoonal flow develops. Seas are expected to build slightly into a 6 to 8 ft range. Gentle to moderate SW to W winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are forecast to the S of 07N through Friday. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge axis extends from 32N134W SE to near 18N118W. High pressure covers the area N of 15N. A rather well-defined surface trough is analyzed from 06N136W to 11N135W moving W around 10 to 15 kt. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate convection from 06N to 13N between 130W and 137W. There is a locally tighter pressure gradient between the trough and ridge axis resulting in mainly moderate to occasional fresh NE winds in the vicinity of the trough. This will persist as the trough shifts westward during the next couple of days. Outside of the influence of the trough...the analyzed pressure gradient supports moderate to fresh winds along with seas in the 5 to 7 ft range. $$ HUFFMAN