000 AXPZ20 KNHC 121506 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1246 UTC Mon Jun 12 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Three-E is centered near 15.4N 95.4W at 12/1500 UTC moving northwest, or 310 degrees, at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 14N to 17N between 94W and 97W. The depression is forecast to reach tropical storm intensity tonight before moving inland Tuesday morning. This system will bring heavy rainfall across portions of southern Mexico, which may lead to life- threatening flash floods and mudslides. See the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 13N91W. It then resumes from 14N98W to 09N112W. The ITCZ extends from 09N112W to 06N119W to 08N133W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm south of the monsoon trough between 84W and 86W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 10N to 16N between 97W and 101W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 08N to 12N between 129W and 133W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see above for more on Tropical Depression Three-E. Aside from Tropical Depression Three-E, fresh to locally strong winds with seas reaching 8 ft are noted off the coast of Baja California Norte. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the far northern Gulf of California, light to gentle winds over the remainder of the Gulf of California, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere over the open waters off the coast of Mexico. Fresh to strong winds with seas in the 7-9 ft range will prevail off the coast of Baja California Norte through midweek before decreasing. Elsewhere winds and seas will remain below advisory criteria. Looking ahead toward the middle of the week into next weekend... there is the potential for a significant heavy rain event across portions of Central America and southern Mexico. A large cyclonic gyre is forecast to develop during the middle to end of the week and move slowly across the northern portion of Central America and southern Mexico. Abundant tropical moisture will be advected across Central America and southern Mexico, with the potential for heavy rainfall producing life threatening flash floods and mudslides. Will continue to monitor this evolving weather pattern during the next couple days and provide updates. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see above for the potential of heavy rainfall across the portions of Central America later this week. Elsewhere...gentle to moderate westerly winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are expected N of 07N...and gentle to moderate SW to W winds with 5 to 7 ft seas forecast S of 07N through midweek. Winds will increase over the northern zones as a large cyclonic gyre develops over Central America. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A high pressure ridge extends across the northern waters while a surface trough is analyzed from 14N136W to 05N137W. Satellite imagery indicates scattered moderate and isolated strong convection associated to this trough from 05N to 09N west of 130W. There is a locally tighter pressure gradient between the trough and ridge axis producing fresh to strong winds north of the trough. This will continue as the trough shifts westward the next couple of days. Outside the trough, moderate to fresh winds with seas in the 4-6 ft range prevails. $$ AL