000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120931 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0920 UTC Mon Jun 12 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Three-E is centered near 15.3N 95.2W at 12/0900 UTC or about 50 nm S of Salina Cruz Mexico moving NW at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 14N to 17N between 94W and 100W. The depression is forecast increase to tropical storm strength before moving inland within 24 hours. Thereafter the system will gradually begin to decrease in intensity through Tuesday afternoon. One main impact with this system will be the expected heavy rainfall across Guatemala...and portions of southern Mexico. These rains may result in life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. See the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough axis extends from 12N102W to 09N110W to 07N117W. The ITCZ axis extends from 07N117W to 08N133W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 13N between 93W and 102W...from 04N to 13N between 129W and 133W... and from 04N to 09N W of 133W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Elsewhere outside of the region impacted by Tropical Depression Three-E...a tight pressure gradient across northern Baja California is inducing moderate to fresh NW winds off the western coast of the northern Baja California peninsula. These winds are forecast to increase slightly into occasional strong levels by Monday night generally N of 26N. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range across the coastal waters and northern Gulf of California...while seas in the central and southern Gulf of California are in the 1 to 3 ft range. NW swell will maintain combined seas of 8 to 9 ft offshore the northern portion of the Baja California peninsula Monday night into Tuesday. Looking ahead toward the middle portion of the upcoming week... there is a very good potential for a significant heavy rain event across portions of Central America and southern Mexico. Global model guidance is suggesting that a large cyclonic gyre is forecast to develop during the middle to end of the week and move slowly across the northern portion of Central America and southern Mexico. Abundant tropical moisture will be advected across these areas with the potential for heavy rainfall resulting in possible life threatening flash floods and mudslides. Will continue to monitor this evolving weather pattern during the next couple days and provide updates. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see above for the potential of heavy rainfall across the northern portion of Central America later this week. Elsewhere...gentle to moderate westerly winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are expected N of 07N...and gentle to moderate SW to W winds with 5 to 7 ft seas forecast S of 07N through Wednesday night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A strong 1031 mb high pressure center located to the NW of the discussion area near 37N152W extends a ridge southeastward to 32N141W to 15N117W. A well-defined surface trough is analyzed from 08N135W to 14N135W moving W at about 10-15 kt. Recent scatterometer data captured southeast to northeast wind shift associated with the trough axis. Satellite imagery indicates scattered moderate convection occurring N of the ITCZ from 04N to 13N between 129W and 133W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure ridge and trough will maintain fresh to occasional strong NE winds with seas of 7 to 9 ft from about 11N to 15N between 128W and 136W through Monday night. Eleswhere...moderate to locally fresh winds continue to the north of the ITCZ with seas in the 4 to 6 ft range. $$ HUFFMAN