000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111502
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1222 UTC Sun Jun 11 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Low pressure of 1008 mb is centered near 13.5N95W and drifting 
NW. Convection has increased around the low pressure center and 
the system continues to gain organization. There remains a medium
chance that the system will develop into a tropical cyclone. 
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, active convection will 
continue south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec and southwest Mexico 
the next couple of days. Convection associated with this feature 
will affect portions of southern Mexico, with the possibility of 
locally heavy rainfall. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
The monsoon trough extends from 12N86W to low pres near 13.5N95W
to 07N110W to 06N118W. The ITCZ extends from 06N118W to 08N130W.
it resumes from 08.5N134W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 90W and 100W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 60
nm either side of the monsoon trough between 100W and 110W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from
05N to 13N between 128W and 131W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
See above for more on the area of low pressure south of the Gulf
of Tehuantepec. 

Elsewhere, fresh to strong winds are affecting the northern Gulf
of California, moderate to fresh winds are noted off the western
coast of the Baja California peninsula, and light to gentle 
winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the 
coastal waters and northern Gulf of California, while seas in the
central and southern Gulf of California are in the 1-3 ft range.
Winds will diminish over the Gulf of California by Monday. Winds
and seas will increase off the coast of Baja California this 
evening, and continue through early next week. Winds and seas are
expected to decrease below advisory criteria by midweek.

Looking ahead toward the middle to end of next week, there is the
potential for a significant heavy rain event over portions of 
Central America and southern Mexico. A large cyclonic gyre is 
forecast to develop the middle to end of the week, and move 
slowly over the northern portion of Central America and southern 
Mexico. Abundant tropical moisture will be advected over these 
areas with the potential for heavy rainfall which may produce 
life threatening flash floods and mudslides. This is something to
keep an eye on over the next few days as the scenario unfolds. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please see above for the potential of heavy rainfall over the
northern portion of Central America later this week. 

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate westerly winds and 4 to 6 ft seas 
are expected N of 07N...and gentle to moderate SW to W winds with
5 to 7 ft seas forecast S of 07N through Wednesday night.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A ridge of high pressure extends across the northern waters, with
a trough extending from 15N132W to 07N133W. Moderate to locally 
fresh winds prevail north of the ITCZ with seas in the 4-7 ft
range. High pressure will continue to build over the next couple
of days. This will increase coverage of fresh winds, increasing 
seas to the 6-8 ft range.

$$
AL