000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110936
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
936 UTC Sun Jun 11 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0815 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1009 mb low is centered near 13N94W and remains embedded within
the Monsoon Trough axis as it continues to drift W-NW. Latest
scatterometer data indicates a relatively broad circulation which
is expected to provide convective precipitation across the Gulf
of Tehuantepec region and interior portions of El Salvador... 
Guatemala...and southern Mexico. Moisture guidance from the
global models indicate this activity will persist the next few
days with the possibility of locally heavy rainfall across the 
aforementioned countries. In addition...the low is expected to
continue gaining organization and could likely form into a
tropical cyclone during the next few days.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
The Monsoon Trough extends from 13N100W to 06N118W. The ITCZ 
axis extends from 06N118W to 07N134W to 06N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 08N to 16N between 94W and 99W.
Widely scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 08N to 17N
between 88W and 100W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
High pressure prevails W of the Baja California peninsula while 
a trough extends across the western Gulf of California. NW winds
remain moderate to occasional fresh off the coast of Baja
California Norte...and gentle to moderate off the coast of Baja 
California Sur. Light to gentle westerly winds prevail elsewhere
with the exception of the Special Features low pressure area 
offshore of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Seas range 6-8 ft off
the coast of Baja California Norte N of 27N and 5-6 ft elsewhere
off the coast of Baja California...and 4-6 ft off the remainder 
of the open waters. Winds are forecast to pulse to strong off 
the coast of Baja California the next few nights. Northwest swell
will propagate into the offshore waters off the coast of Baja 
California Norte Sunday and Sunday night. The swell will 
propagate southward to near 25N while subsiding and fall below 8
ft by midweek. Fresh to locally strong S to SW winds are 
forecast N of 29.5N in the Gulf of California through late Sunday.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Gentle to moderate westerly winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are 
expected N of 07N...and gentle to moderate SW to W winds with 5 
to 7 ft seas forecast S of 07N through Wednesday night.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A weakening stationary front extends across the northern waters 
from 30N117W to 28N120W to 25N140W. Weak high pressure remains S
of the front with a ridge extending from 25N130W SE to near 
17N117W. Moderate to occasional fresh northeast winds prevail N 
of the stationary front...while moderate winds prevail elsewhere.
Seas are in the 5-7 ft range. The front is expected to dissipate
by Sunday night as high pressure then builds across the northern
waters. This will freshen winds north of the ITCZ early this 
week with seas building to 6-8 ft.

$$
HUFFMAN