000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100239 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Jun 10 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0215 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A weak tropical wave axis is along 93W/94W from 08N to 15N, with a 1007 mb low analyzed on it near 13N94W per ship with call sign "DGTX " and last visible imagery animation. The system is moving west at 5 to 10 kt. It is located within a broad area of cyclonic rotation confined to roughly from 08N to 16N between 88W and 100W. Latest satellite imagery shows clusters of scattered moderate to strong convection within 180 nm west of the axis from 08N to 10N. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 30 nm either side of a line from 14N93W to 16N94W. 700 mb model streamline analysis depicts broad low pressure within the same area as the low and tropical wave. The wave and low will continue to move at about the same motion through the weekend, with the low moving a little more in a west to northwest direction. Latest forecast guidance suggests that the tropical wave may be dropped from the surface analysis, with the low becoming the dominant feature of interest at some time during the weekend. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough axis is analyzed from a 1009 mb low located along the coast of NW Colombia westward to across northern Panama, then to along the west coast of Costa Rica and northwest from there to 12.5N88W to 13N92W. It resumes at 11N95W to 09N106W to 07N111.5W and to 07N117W, where scatterometer winds indicate that the ITCZ forms, and continues to 07N121W then northwestward to 09N128W. It resumes at 07N132W to beyond the area at 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 180 nm south of the axis between 95W and 103W, and within 60 nm of the axis between 107W and 110W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the axis between 104W and 107W, and within 60 nm of the axis between 110W and 113W. An inverted surface trough is analyzed from 05N131W to low pressure near 09N130W 1012 mb to 14N129W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is east of the trough within 30 nm east of a line from 11N126.5W to 14N127W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A northwest to southeast orientated ridge extends across the waters just west of the offshore zones, with the associated pressure gradient will maintain moderate to locally fresh northwest winds west of the Baja Peninsula through Tue night. The exception is that locally strong nw winds are expected across the near shore waters north of 26N in the evenings and at night through Monday. Another round of large northwest swell is forecast by wave model guidance to arrive along 32N on Saturday evening with seas in the range of 7 to 10 ft. It will propagate southward to along 30N by late Sunday night, then reach to near 27.5N on Monday night and begin to subside from the south. Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate southerly flow is expected north of 30N through Saturday, then fresh to locally strong southwest winds are forecast along 30N west 114W on Saturday night through early on Sunday afternoon, with seas building to about 5 ft. Light and variable winds are expected south of 30N through Tuesday night. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Light northerly drainage flow is expected through Tue night. Mexican offshore waters elsewhere s of 23N: Light to gentle south to westerly flow, and 3 to 5 seas are forecast through Mon night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate westerly winds and 4 to 6 ft seas area expected n of 07N, and moderate southerly winds with 5 to 7 ft seas forecast s of 07N through Tue night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1020 mb surface high center is quasi-stationary near 26N128W with a ridge extending southeastward to within 250 nm west of the Revillagigedo Islands. Generally, weak high pressure covers the area, with the exception of stronger high pressure building eastward over the northwest waters behind a weakening cold front that extends along a position from near 32N123W southwestward to 30N128W where it becomes stationary to southwest of the area at 25N140W. Gentle to locally moderate anticyclonic flow is observed to the south of the ridge to along 10N. Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are north of the ridge, and also to the east of the front. Mainly moderate northeast winds are northwest of the front. The cold front will weaken through Saturday, then gradually dissipate through Sunday evening with a stronger ridge expected from near 32N138W to near 10N116W into early next week. $$ Aguirre