000 AXPZ20 KNHC 092155 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Jun 9 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A weak tropical wave axis is introduced along 93W from 08N to 15N, moving west 5 to 10 kt. This wave has moved into an evolving broad area of cyclonic rotation of the low cloud field as noted in latest visible satellite imagery. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 120 nm east and 60 nm west of the axis from 13N to 15N. Similar activity is seen to the west of the axis within a 45 nm radius of 14N95W. The satellite imagery suggests that a small and weak cyclonic circulation is on the wave axis near 13N93W. This low coincides with 700 and 500 mb model streamline analyses that also depict a small cyclonic circulation in the same general location. The wave will move about the same speed through Saturday as it becomes more involved with the developing broad area of low pressure. It will most likely be dropped from the surface analysis and replaced by low pressure at some time during the weekend. The tropical wave earlier analyzed along 108W dissipated as it moved through a drier and more stable environment this afternoon. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough axis is analyzed from along the coast of NW Colombia to just south of the coast of northern Panama, and continues northwestward just inland the coast of Costa Rica, northwest from there to 13N91W. It resumes at 11N95W to 09N105W to 07N115W, where scatterometer winds indicate that the ITCZ forms, and continues westward to 07N122W the northwest to 09N128W. It resumes at 07N131W to beyond the area at 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 180 nm south of the axis between 92W and 98W, and within 60 nm south of the axis between 93W and 104W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the axis between 104W and 109W, within 60 nm of the axis between 109W and 113W, and within 30 nm of 09N85W. An inverted surface trough is analyzed from 04N130W to 16N127W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 60 nm east of the trough from 10N to 13N. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A northwest to southeast orientated ridge extends across the waters just w of the offshore zones, with the associated pressure gradient will maintain moderate to locally fresh northwest winds west of the Baja Peninsula through Tue night. The exception is that locally strong nw winds are expected across the near shore waters north of 26N in the evenings and at night beginning tonight, then again on Sunday and Monday evenings. Another round of large northwest swell is forecast by wave model guidance to arrive along 32N on Saturday evening with seas in the range of 7 to 10 ft. It will propagate southward to along 30N by late Sunday night, then reach to near 27.5N on Monday night and begin to subside from the south. Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate southerly flow is expected north of 30N through Saturday, then fresh to locally strong southwest winds are forecast from 29.5N to 31N on Saturday night through early on Sunday afternoon, with seas building to about 5 ft. Light and variable winds are expected south of 30N through Tuesday night. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Light northerly drainage flow is expected through Tue night. Mexican offshore waters elsewhere s of 23N: Light to gentle south to westerly flow, and 3 to 5 seas are forecast through Mon night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate westerly winds and 4 to 6 ft seas area expected n of 07N, and moderate southerly winds with 5 to 7 ft seas forecast s of 07N through Tue night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1020 mb surface high center is quasi-stationary near 26N128W with a ridge extending southeastward to within 250 nm west of the Revillagigedo Islands. Generally, weak high pressure covers the area, with the exception of stronger high pressure building eastward over the northwest waters behind a weakening cold front that extends along a position from near 32N125W southwestward to 25N140W where it becomes stationary southwest from there. Gentle to locally moderate anticyclonic flow is observed to the south of the ridge to along 10N. Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are north of the ridge, and also to the east of the cold front. Mainly moderate northeast winds are northwest of the cold front. The cold front is forecast to become stationary from near 32N120W to 27N135W to 25N140W on Friday night, then gradually dissipate through Saturday night with a ridge expected from near 32N138W to near 10N116W. $$ Aguirre